A dress rehearsal for the general elections

The elections, mostly in central and west India, come before a general election in early 2009 that will pit the ruling Congress-led UPA coalition against the main opposition alliance led by Bharatiya Janata Party.

Voters may also pass judgment on a government criticised for rising prices and for failing to prevent terror attacks, issues that have helped the BJP win a string of state elections in the last year.

For the first time, India may also see the political impact of a global credit crunch that is already pinching poor farmers and aspiring middle class voters once enjoying an economic boom.

India's economy is reeling, with car factories on three-day weeks, soy farmers hit by drops in commodity prices or revenue outlooks by software exporters cut.

"We're looking at these elections from the threat of terrorism, and economic threats," said Sudheendra Kulkarni, a BJP election strategist. "People feel unsafe from multiple sources."

The economy may still grow at around 7.5 percent this year, but it's a far cry from 9 pct or more in the last few years and the trend is south. Some experts predict industry, which accounts for about 20 percent of the economy, may be near recession.

"These are dress rehearsals for the two major parties," said political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan.

"The elections will be looked at as a verdict on (Prime Minister) Manmohan's Singh's economic policies and the effect of the slowdown."

Four of six elections - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and Delhi -- will be a straight battle between Congress and BJP, votes largely devoid of the strong regional parties.

Kashmir, facing its biggest anti-India protests in years, also faces a vote that will test the Indian government's claim on the disputed region, while in Mizoram, a local regional party is fighting Congress.

It's all in the timing

The elections could influence the general election timing. If Congress does well, the government may use the momentum to call early elections in February. A poor showing could see the government wait until April or May, the end of its term.

Whoever does best in the states may find it easier to secure alliances with regional parties before the general election, crucial when either side build a post-election coalition.

"Naturally, everyone loves a winner," said political analyst Amulya Ganguli. "It will all help coalition building.

The BJP faces a tough challenge in states where it is the incumbent -- Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Incumbents in India often do badly in elections, and when the BJP held on to Gujarat earlier this year, it was a huge morale boost.

Congress hopes to reverse recent state election defeats with this incumbent factor.

Congress is also strong in Delhi, with a chief minister who gained some plaudits with projects like an expanding metro as the capital prepares for the 2010 Commonwealth Games.

Chhattisgarh, one of the states most hit by Maoist rebels, could test whether voters punish Congress on what many Indians see as lax security policies, or punish the incumbent BJP.

Aside from the economy, the BJP is campaigning on the need for a tougher government, and harsher anti-terrorism measures to combat cross-border terrorism and Maoist insurgents.

In play in nearly all the states will also be the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a regional party that won power in Uttar Pradesh state with a base among Dalits. Its leader, Mayawati, is seeking to make her party a national force.

A good BSP showing could eat into Congress's traditional support from lower castes and set Mayawati up as a possible king maker after a coalition emerges from the general election.

All these parties will look at how voters, from jewellery makers in Rajasthan whose wages have been halved, to airline stewardesses facing sackings, react to a quietening economy.