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Thesis: The wave of terror strikes and the Mumbai attack would become the meta-narrative of these elections. The BJP tried to stoke and mobilize anxieties around this issue in its campaigns. L K Advani and Narendra Modi addressed several rallies, especially in Delhi and Madhya Pradesh, which had terror as their main theme. The spurt in turnout in Delhi on November 29, three days after the Mumbai attack — Rajasthan went to polls five days later — and especially in the capital’s urban constituencies, was cited as evidence of the anxiety that had gripped the voter.
Reality check: Terror — or how safe we are — is certainly an issue and given the attacks in Delhi, Jaipur and then Mumbai, the Congress-led UPA was on the defensive. But the BJP’s formulation of the issue failed to strike a credible chord.
Its campaign that the UPA was “soft on terror” didn’t translate into “we know how to keep you safe.” Its “blood-stain” ad asking for votes even as the siege was on in Mumbai put off many voters.
Thesis: The economic crisis and inflation would be an overarching issue.
Reality check: Rise in prices of essential commodities did not stop incumbents in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi from coming back to power, when the electorate thought their governments had performed.
By all accounts, the defeat of incumbents in Rajasthan and Mizoram cannot be attributed to the economic crisis and was due to factors that lay closer home.
In Rajasthan, for instance, it is safe to say that Vasundhara Raje was more hobbled by serious infighting in her own party than by consequences of the meltdown.
Sure, EMI pain and inflation are issues for voters but they weren’t convinced that a change in government would fix these problems.
Thesis: BSP’s Mayawati and her “rainbow” coalition would set the stage for a third force.
Reality check: The BSP gained but is far short of Mayawati’s ambition. It polled over 10% of the vote in 51 seats in MP, 38 each in Delhi and Rajasthan and at least 11 in Chhattisgarh. Such incremental progress may being some cheer to Mayawati but she is far from being a new pole in national politics.
The BSP did not cost the Congress its chance to form governments in the still essentially bi-polar contests in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Nor does the Congress miss the BSP’s numbers in forming governments in Delhi, where it has a got majority of its own, or in Rajasthan where it can easily make up the short distance to the magic figure by choosing from a large array of Independents.
Thesis: Party that has a CM, has the vote
Reality check: Mixed. In Rajasthan, the BJP went to polls with a Chief Minister and lost. The Congress won in the state and it still hasn’t declared a chief minister. But then Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh were both effective CMs as was Sheila Dikshit in Delhi. And all three staved off anti-incumbency.
What’s the message of the verdicts?
To all parties: Anti-incumbency is not an iron law of nature. Incumbency can be a good thing and people will turn out in large numbers to vote for a party in government again if it is seen to have delivered.
To BJP: Party organisation and party leadership have to be in sync. In MP, the party changed almost a third of its MLAs in a repeat of Gujarat while in Delhi it did not.
In Chouhan and Raman Singh, it had two strong faces but in Delhi, it fielded V K Malhotra who was beyond his use-by date. In Rajasthan, it had a dynamic face in Vasundhara but the party tied her hands down.
Fear may not sell in the old ways with the voter anymore. The low-key Chouhan focused on bijli-sadak-paani issues even when national leaders of his own party were trying to change the subject to the arrest of Sadhvi Pragya Singh.
Modi’s rallies accusing the UPA of demoralising the Army — in the Malegaon probe — and his constant terror refrain invoked the law of diminishing returns.
To Congress: Imposing leaders from the “high command” doesn’t help. If a Central scheme — like NREGA — works well, voters tend to reward the state government which executes it.
Congress organisation in MP was in a shambles so a galaxy of leaders from Delhi could make little difference.
In Rajasthan, it won but even a Vasundhara, wracked by inner-party war, could get as many as 78 seats.
The Congress has broken its losing streak in state elections. But it would be dangerous to see the results of these Assembly elections as anything more than the results of these Assembly elections.
The BJP had won handsome victories in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in 2003. But it could not take these gains to other states in the Lok Sabha elections of 2004 a few months later — this is where the choice and winnability of allies matter.
For the Congress, it would also be wrong to read into these results a reprieve on either internal security or inflation and growth.
The 3-2 tally only earns the UPA some breathing space and room for manoeuvre before the campaign begins for Lok Sabha polls 2009.
(with bureau reports)
BJP had been in Power in Capital but tussel for Chair between Mr. Madan lal Khurana , and Mr , Saheib Singh Verma exposed the faces when BJP leadership failed to sort out their domestic problem . same way Mr. Raj nath Singh who failed to bring any result in U P. but BJP leadership expect miracle from him , The majority win in Madhya Pradesh and Chatis garh is due to the Local leaders Educated . Public undersatand the cause of Inflation . Mrs Dixit approach to Bhagidari abhiyan is welcommed by the educated masses.
'Bihari' we know you are that missing 11th terrorist sent by ISI using internet instead of AK-47! Shut up don't pose as Bihari.. may be help those 'Bihari muslims' abondoned by Punjabi muslims in Pak.!
BJP lost because it relied heavily on negative sentiments again Congress.It hoped Congress party's messed-up governance in centre would yield votes in states. But state elections are more about local issues then national issues. Also although congress had many shortcoming but as a voter it is important to know what strategy BJP would employ remove these shortcomings.BJP highlighted congress failures but could not portray clearly how they would face such problems. Also choosing candidates who could connect to voters pulse is more important than having star campaigner. Modi is a hero in Gujrat but why would a delhites would fall for his oratory since he wont be working for them. But I hope BJP would learn from its mistake in coming general election because I have lost all hope of a secured and developed India under congress government.
Yes Aditya you have hit the nail on the head, BJP has been trying to make issues out of situations and happenings where they should have stood united for our country,Advani and his men are doing a great disservice to our nation and should be brushed under the carpet.
BAN THE COMMUNAL FANATICAL MURDERER ORGANAISATION LIKE RSS, VHP, BAJRANG DAL, BJP, ABHINAV BHARAT, DURGA VAHINI, ABVP, AKHADA'S ETC.THESE HINDU FANATICS THE MURDERER OF MAHATMA GANDHI, THE COLLABORATOR OF BRITISH RULE IN INDIA, THE RULER OF DARK BRAHMANICAL AGES, BAN THEM.
congratulations congress for a good victory. now can i except terorrism, and poor national govarnance with vote bank politics, minority appeasement, is a law. can we all garland the terorrist afzal guru now ?. shall we now stop speaking about terror ? IE must find out how many hindus voted, how many muslims, backward voted ? as it is always intrested in various caste based surveys let us see how many hindus disgusted of the politics it self and why they dont vote. why a negative or none of the above candidates button is not on the voting machine ?
BJP adopts a two faced approach.Before election it puts a Hindutva mask, terrorise minorities, whips up the religeous fundamentalism and gets itself elected.Once elected, it puts another Mask called "Development" because it knows the Hindutva mask will not help furthr thanks to large number of sensible people still in the country.Basically, it neither has commitment to Hindutva nor Development.It is like any other party having its own personal aspirations of many politicians covered by one ubrella .Advani's desperation to become PM at any cost even at the cost of Destruction will not yeild any result
I would not have drifted from the party and may be many more? Being in Mumbai also helped a lot; here I saw how easily an Ugly party like MNS could divide the Mumbai populace and this made me even hate more the divisive policies of parties at national level. I believe India is one. All Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Sikhs are entitled to equal rights(Will I also have to add North East South West after MNS tactics .I will support the one who unites, the one who works for ALL. And unless the poorest and the most downtrodden of my country don’t have enough to eat and enough to Live, I won’t be happy earning my Millions. I will be happy with half the earnings if my country is the best place to live and offers its poor’s a livable life. I will support the one who works for US - Indians, not me, even if it is at the risk of loosing support like UPA did when they dropped left to pursue what they believed in, even at the risk of government. We want leaders not Politicians.
BJP was supposed to be the cheerleader for nationalistic causes - I used to support it for this reason, Then came the nuclear deal, I am no expert to actually comment how well this job was done, but I know one thing for sure- any government in India who had been in power would have accepted the same deal, why was it opposed by BJP just because it was done by Congress? Then during the Mumbai attack BJP should not have targeted the government so early it should have worked together. Also Price rise was projected by the party as being Congress fault, I have been to many countries in past few months all developed - they are having same issue- did all government fail at the same time would economic crisis world over would have been avoided by BJP - NO, then it should not have targeted the government for this, We want political parties and oppositions who work for country and also appear working for country - Take everyone along, Constructive opposition and equality for all.
But when we look at closely -there is not that much delightful news to Congress party as it has not able to muster the simple majority in Rajasthan and the reduced the number of seats in Delhi than earlier. And in Mizoram it is the anti incumbency. Only the victory in Delhi by Sheila ji is good and individual but not to the Congress. But as mentioned in tis artcile that the security and inflation are always the important issues but the voters preferred to limit themselves to the local issues and the development of the state. They have not bothered about the National issues. And on the other has the BJP has got the convicing victory in MP and Chattisgarh. I suggest the Election Commission to conduct something like social audit of the Election Manifestoes and the Candidates' character. Let the EC evaluate the promises that were fulfilled by the parties that are propesed in their manifestoes and the let them publish in the media for the coters judgement.