As a statement of intent, the BJP's pre-poll economic manifesto oozes nationalism from every pore. To that extent, it will be seen as out of tune with reality. Nationalism in this age of globalisation appears a quaint notion to India's intelligentsia, never mind how high a price the nation has to pay for globalisation of the here-and-now variety. The common argument for globalisation is actually not an argument at all. The main refrain of the unthinking globalisers is: "Run, or you'll miss the bus." Nobody stops to ask the more crucial question: Do we really want to board any bus without knowing where it is headed? Or what the fare will be? The BJP manifesto is unique precisely because it seeks to answer this uncomfortable question. It's answer is: we will board the bus, or take another vehicle, at the time of our choosing. The truth is globalisation can never be a now-or-never option for a country as big as India. China is still not part of the WTO -- but it does not seem to have suffered much from its50-year isolation. It has silently prepared itself to face the world on its terms, and today the world is beating a path to its door. Nationalism, not globalisation, is the driving force for China.It has no legal framework worth the name, it is picky in the type of investment it seeks, it has some 2,50,000 inefficient state enterprises (we have just a few hundreds), and its economic decisions have political undertones for the rest of the world. But this is the China that is held up as a great destination for investment by the "democratic" western powers. Less than 10 years after Tiananmen Square, China is far from being the pariah it once was.
There is a lesson in all this for India. In doing what is right for the country, it should be afraid to walk alone for a while. This idea is the bedrock on which the BJP manifesto is rooted, and one cannot fault it on this score. But between the feel-good approach of economic nationalism and the reality of negotiating global realities, much can go wrong. And it ishere that the BJP needs to focus its energies. It is all right to say that domestic industry will be protected for 7 to 10 years, but the point is not protection itself, but what it is going to be used for. Will domestic industry just use the leeway to fleece consumers and then fade away? Or will it use the interregnum to build real strengths to compete globally? It is hogwash to say the rupee's depreciation will be checked -- unless you can tell us what the idea is.
Indian exports currently cannot compete on anything except price. Unless real export strengths are built based on brands and marketshares, an appreciating rupee will only damage the balance-of-payments position. Or take power policy. The BJP has pledged that all eight fast-track projects will begin construction this year if it comes to power. But more important than getting a few costly projects off the ground is the policy initiative needed to privatise distribution and raise tariffs for farmers. India's power crisis is less about availabilityof power than inability to recover the costs of generating it. Till this basic problem is left unaddressed, the SEBs will be on the fast-track to disaster. The BJP talks of merging weak public sector banks with stronger ones. But it will be making a mistake if it thinks that size is strength. Size is important, but speed and adaptability are more important. The dinosaurs became extinct because they were not fast enough, not because they were not big. In sum, the BJP's manifesto displays some understanding of the direction it wants to go. But it still needs a roadmap. It has demonstrated that its heart bleeds for India. But if the country does actually place its destiny in the BJP's hands, it will find that it needs head more than heart to set things right.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
