MUMBAI, March 5: Cotton crop during the cotton year is likely to be lower at around 145-150 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), including the loose cotton, from the earlier estimates of over 160 lakh bales.Coupled with carryover stocks of around 30 lakh bales (against the previous estimates of 24 lakh bales), and lower exports of just two lakh bales (against earlier estimates of over 7.5 lakh bales), the total availability of cotton during the current year will be comfortable at around 175 lakh bales, notwithstanding imports of over 3 lakh bales, for which contracts have already been signed.
These and other related aspects will be debated, assessed and announced by the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) at its meeting in Mumbai on Friday.
Various factions of the cotton trade and industry are divided over the total availability of cotton crop during the current year, which witnessed unseasonal rains in November -December 1997, that led to leaf curl virus affecting the cotton crop almost all over the country.
Cottoncrop from Maharashtra, for example, is likely to offer lower cotton stock at around 13 lakh bales (against earlier estimates of 15 lakh bales) and that from the northern region it is likely to be lower at around 28 lakh bales (33 lakh bales).
Despite this, a section of the industry is confident that the overall quantity of cotton will be comfortable at around 175 lakh bales this year on two main counts:
One, the economic slowdown in the country is likely to see cotton consumption low, primarily by the smaller mills, while the medium to big mills are said to be facing excess inventory;
Two, demand from the south-east Asian countries, facing currency crisis, is likely to see lower exports to those countries, which were major importers of cotton and other blended yarns from the country.
Taking these factors into account, the Cotton Advisory Board will announce its own estimates of cotton availability.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
