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Ashok B Sharma
The current year's southwest monsoon is turning out to be more bountiful with 19 out of the 35 meteorological sub-divisions in the country recording more rainfall till July 15 than that in the corresponding period of last year.
A careful analysis shows that out of the information available from 397 districts of the country, 152 districts had rainfall in excess of the average for the area, 147 districts had average normal rainfall, 69 districts had deficient rainfall and 29 districts had scanty rainfall. Not one district missed rainfall.
The criteria fixed for judging excess rainfall is 20 per cent or more precipitation over the average rainfall in the area for the specific period. Normal rainfall is adjudged as between the range of 19 per cent over and below the level of normal precipitation in the area. Deficient rainfall is attributed to precipitation ranging between less than 20 per cent to less than 59 per cent of the average rainfall in the area for the specific period. Scanty rainfall is defined as The current year's southwest monsoon is turning out to be more bountiful with 19 out of the 35 meteorological sub-divisions in the country recording more rainfall till July 15 than that in the corresponding period of last year.
A careful analysis shows that out of the information available from 397 districts of the country, 152 districts had rainfall in excess of the average for the area, 147 districts had average normal rainfall, 69 districts had deficient rainfall and 29 districts had scanty rainfall. Not one district missed rainfall.
The criteria fixed for judging excess rainfall is 20 per cent or more precipitation over the average rainfall in the area for the specific period. Normal rainfall is adjudged as between the range of 19 per cent over and below the level of normal precipitation in the area. Deficient rainfall is attributed to precipitation ranging between less than 20 per cent to less than 59 per cent of the average rainfall in the area for the specific period. Scanty rainfall is defined asprecipitation ranging between less than 60 per cent to less than 99 per cent of the average rainfal.
Weather forecast: According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), till July 22, rainfall is likely to increase along the foothills of the Himalayas, west coast, central India and northeastern states.
Rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places in eastern UP, Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal and Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and Kerala and Lakshadweep. Rain or thundershowers will occur at a few places in Madhya Pradesh, west UP, Maharashtra and coastal Karnataka. Isolated heavy rain is likely to occur in east UP, Bihar plains, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Rainfall distribution and review: Analysis of the rainfall distribution shows that till July 15, that out of the 11 meteorological sub-divisions receiving excess rainfall,Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi leads with 97 per cent, followed by West Rajasthan 89 per cent, Punjab 83 per cent, East Rajasthan 54 per cent, Saurashtra-Kutch-Diu 49 per cent, Arunachal Pradesh 44 per cent, Himachal Pradesh 32 per cent, East UP 31 per cent, Jammu and Kashmir 29 per cent, western UP plains 27 per cent and Gujarat region 24 per cent.
But the excess rainfall recorded till July 15 in east UP, which is 319 mm, is less than the rainfall recorded for the corresponding period in the previous year which stands at 325 mm. Thirty-five districts in UP, 21 districts in Rajasthan, 15 districts in Haryana, 12 districts in Gujarat, 11 districts in Karnataka, 9 districts each in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, 8 districts in MP, 5 districts each in Assam, West Bengal and Bihar, 4 districts each in Arunachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh, 3 districts each in Jammu and Kashmir and Maharashtra and one district each in Chandigarh, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu received excess rainfall till July 15.
Normal rains: Amongstthe sub-divisions receiving normal rainfall in the current season, Lakshadweep received the highest of 17 per cent over its normal average followed by sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim at 16 per cent, coastal Karnataka and north interior Karnataka at 13 per cent, south interior Karnataka at 10 per cent, coastal Andhra Pradesh at 8 per cent, Andaman & Nicobar Islands at 6 per cent, Telangana and central Maharashtra at 3 per cent and Assam and Meghalaya at one per cent over their average normal rainfall for the period.
But Assam and Meghalaya, hills of west UP, central Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, south Karnataka and Lakshadweep recorded less quantity of rainfall in the current season as compared to the corresponding period in the previous year. Amongst the sub-divisions receiving normal rainfall, Marathwada received the lowest which is 18 per cent below its average rainfall followed by Konkan and Goa at 9 per cent less, Rayalaseema and Bihar plains at 7 per cent less, Keralaat 4 per cent less and west MP at 3 per cent less than their average normal rainfall for the period.
Twenty-one districts in Maharashtra, 20 districts in MP, 16 districts in Andhra Pradesh, 14 districts each in UP and Karnataka, 9 districts each in Bihar and Kerala, 7 districts in Gujarat, 6 districts in Orissa, 5 districts each in Assam and Rajasthan, 4 districts in Jammu and Kashmir, 3 districts in West Bengal, 2 districts each in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh and one district each in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Manipur, Tripura,Sikkim, Haryana, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep received normal rainfall.
Deficient rains: Amongst the sub-divisions receiving deficient rainfall, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry received the lowest at 42 per cent below its average rainfall followed by Bihar plateau at 38 per cent less, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura at 25 per cent less, Orissa at 24 per cent less, eastern MP at 21 percent less and Vidharbha and GangeticWest Bengal at 20 per cent less than their average rainfall.
Thirteen districts in MP, 9 districts in Bihar, 7 districts each in Sikkim and West Bengal, 5 districts each in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, 4 districts in Rajasthan, 3 districts each in UP, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, 2 districts each in Assam and Karnataka and one district each in Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Diu received deficient rainfall in the period till July 15.
Scanty rains: No region in the country received scanty rainfall in the monsoon period till July 15. However, in last week there was scanty rainfall in Bihar plateau, Saurashtra, Kutch, Diu, Konkan, Goa, Marathwada, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and north interior Karnataka. During the current monsoon period till July 15, 15 districts of Tamil Nadu, 4 districts each in Bihar and UP, 3 districts in MP and one district each in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Assam received scanty rainfall.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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