According to March, 1998, figures submitted by cola firms in their reply to a parliamentary question, the soda market is worth around 20 million cases, out of which Bisleri accounts for around eight million cases. The carbonated soft drinks market itself is pegged around 250 million cases. Therefore, the Bisleri brand contributes over 3 per cent to Coke's total market share. What makes the downsizing of Coke's share interesting is not the size of the loss, but the resultant gain to Pepsi. Figures from the parliamentary note indicate that Coke has a total market share of around 50 per cent, while Pepsi hasaround 45 per cent. A 3 per cent dip in market share will make Pepsi a much stronger contender to the number one position.

The latest market figures for 43 cities supplied by market-research agency IMRB for May, 1998, show that Coke has only 48 per cent of the market, while Pepsi has garnered 47.2 per cent. If these figures are taken as a benchmark, then for the first time, Pepsi will surpass Coke's market share and become the company which sells maximum number of carbonated soft drinks. However, figures of research agency ORG for the same month show that Coke enjoys a 56 per cent market share, while Pepsi has 40 per cent. While the battle of the cola firms has increasingly become a war of market share, there is no doubt that the Bisleri loss will hit Coke hard, if only in terms of market perception. As part of a damage-control exercise, Coke has already instructed its bottlers to shift to bottling and distribution of its recently launched in-house soda brand Kinley. The brand is being test-marketed incertain cities for a few months now. However, market observers say that it will be nearly one year before Coke can make an impact with Kinley. Coke will also have to take into account rival Pepsi's soda business, which outsells Bisleri today. Pepsi with its two soda brands, Lehar soda and Dukes, is the market leader and plans to beef up its operations further. BOX: Chauham may tie up with Schweppes

The loss in Coke's market share seems to be Cadbury Schweppes' gain, as Chauhan is planning to sign up with the firm to bottle Bisleri. While Chauhan plans to retain control of the distribution and marketing of the soda brand, the tieup is expected to give a tremendous boost to Schweppes' bottlers, as their plant capacity utlisation will nearly double. The capacity enhancement is also likely to help the firm in retaining its bottlers, as some of them, like the Mumbai-based McCoy Ltd, had terminated its agreement with Schweppes on grounds of low capacity utilisation.

Speaking to The Financial Express, RameshChauhan said he was set to make an investment of nearly Rs 40 crore in distribution and glass float to promote his brand. There would also be a fresh advertising campaign to expand the market for Bisleri. Market observers are interpreting the forthcoming tussle between Bisleri and Kinley as a battle between branding and distribution. While Bisleri is a strong brand, being the only soda with a national presence, Kinley will be supported by Coke's formidable distribution network. To be sure, the Schweppes deal will get Chauhan only around 18 bottlers, while Coke already has triple the number of bottlers in place.