Even as leading Indian exporters of the drug say that the falling prices will not affect their projections, experts say that this may serve as an effective deterrant for new entrants. The Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) had in June this year cleared sildenafil citrate export licences of four companies -- Orchid Chemicals, Cipla, Ranbaxy Labs and Hetero Drugs - though the list of aspiring exporters had been growing each day.

While Orchid Chemicals' first consignment of the product is expected to be shipped next week, Mumbai-based Cipla has already exported it first batch of the drug, though pricing details of both exporters could not be ascertained. As on June 5 this year,export licences amounting to 39,262 kg and 5,000 tablets of sildenafil citrate were cleared by the DCGI.

"Now that the initial euphoria over sildenafil citrate has died down, the current prices of $7000 per kg seem more realistic. Besides, increased competition will bring down prices, though we must admit that there had perhaps been an over-estimation of demand," an Indian manufacturer of the product said. Significantly, one of the leading Indian exporters said that the average realistic price of the drug lay between $10,000 and $12,000 per kg and refuted claims of a crash in prices.

However, industry experts add that demand for the product is expected to pick up as Viagra patent holder, Pfizer, registers the drug in more countries. "Viagra is understood to have received registeration in several European markets and this is expected to facilitate a stabilisation of demand," they said.

Analysts add that some Indian companies may also re-evaluate their sildenafil citrate export plans in the "new pricescenario" given that several smaller bulk drug units from Hyderabad are expected to enter the market, depressing prices further.

Significantly, international prescriptions for Viagra itself have reportedly fallen consistently to 85,000 in the week ending August 21 compared with its 2,79,000 levels in the week ending May 8 earlier this year. Refills of the blue diamond-shaped pills have apparently been more or less flat in early July.