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Reuters
Bangkok, Oct 14: Thailand, the world's top rice exporter, expects robust exports in 1999 although the volume may not hit the record 6.0 million tonnes forecast for this year, a senior industry official said on Tuesday.
Vorapong Pichpongsa, president of Thai Rice Exporters' Association, said it will still be a sellers' market next year as demand is seen remaining aggressive.
"The demand for rice next year will be strong but might not be as strong as this year. Indonesia's crops will be better... and Vietnam will be our major competitor," he told Reuters in an interview.
"It will also be another good year for farmers. This year the farmers will win the first prize in the lottery. Next year, at least they will win the second prize. They might get the first prize again, depending on the baht value," he added.
The strong world demand for rice and the weaker baht have substantially raised incomes of Thailand's rice farmers this year.
The US Agriculture Department has projected world rice trade next yearat 20.1 million tonnes, down from 23.85 million tonnes forecast for this year.
Despite expected improved rice crops, Indonesia and the Philippines will retain their status as major rice importers next year, he said.
Vorapong said he does not expect the recently stronger baht to affect rice exports adversely in the remaining months of this year.
He projected Thai rice sales at around 6.1 million to 6.2 million tonnes this year compared with 5.27 million tonnes in 1997.
During the first nine months of 1998, Thailand exported 4.74 million tonnes of rice worth 65.83 billion baht compared with 40.03 billion baht from sales of 3.65 million tonnes of rice in the same period last year.
But a larger proportion of this year's sales have been of lower quality rice.
High quality rice accounted for 40 per cent of exports between January and September against 50 per cent last year.
Medium grades accounted for 12 per cent of exports while low grade 25 per cent and broken rice made up 48 per cent of totalexports, he said.
The shift in the trend was attributed to Indonesia's return to 25 per cent grade after it was hit hard by an economic crisis.
Vorapong was optimistic that Thailand would be able to sell at least 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of rice at an upcoming rice tender in Indonesia expected to take place on October 15.
"The price should not be lower than last time. The flood damage in China will be another factor that will affect the prices at this tender," he said.
Thailand's first rice crop for 1998/99 (April-March) is projected at 18.51 million tonnes compared with 17.84 million tonnes in the previous season.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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