US prof predicts oil's demiseThe world's demand for oil will outstrip supply in the year 2020, according to a university geology professor.
``It's important that people realise that renewable energy sources are where we need to be headed,'' said John D Edwards, a geology professor at the University of Colorado at Boulder, who spent 37 years working as a geologist for Shell Oil.
When the so-called ``energy gap'' occurs, the world will need to begin making up the difference from solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy resources, said Edwards.
There are more than 1 trillion barrels of oil out there to be discovered, said Edwards and we have the technology to extract up to 75 per cent of the known oil in existing oil fields.
Edwards predicts that world crude oil production will peak in 2020 at 90 million barrels a day. He forecasts that US crude oil production will cease by about 2090 and world production will be nearly exhausted by the year 2100.
``Our children and grandchildrenare going to be mad at us for burning all this oil,'' he said. Oil can be put to more valuable use in producing petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals such as plastics, fertilisers, herbicides nd medicines. ``It took the Earth 500 million years to create the stuff we're burning in 200 years,'' he said.
According to Edward's world oil supply analysis:
q 85 per cent of the world's energy now comes from oil, gas and coal. Coal is the most abundant fuel, with more than a 200-year supply, but it is by far the dirtiest to burn. Coal adds to air pollution and global warming concerns.
More than 50 per cent of US electrical energy is provided by coal. Gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, but there are problems in transporting it to markets by pipeline or liquid natural gas tankers. Europe is converting from coal-fired electric power plants to gas-fired, a trend Edwards expects to see in the United States. Non-OPEC nations currently produce 60 per cent of the world's oil supply, but OPECcontrols 75 per cent of known reserves and, by 2010, is expected to supply more than half the world's oil. Oil exploration costs are going down and the success rate is going up. New technology is allowing more oil to be extracted from existing fields than ever before. The biggest factors in calculating future energy demand are world population growth and the rising standard of living in developing countries.Industry funds hiking trails
The American Hiking Society, in an effort to help establish, preserve and protect America's foot trails, has launched the AHS National Trails Endowment. AHS is encouraging companies and outdoor enthusiasts to donate to the endowment, which will provide grants to trail organisations around the US.
The Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association provided a start-up boost with a $50,000 donation to promote the fund and provide the first round of grants. The association's donation also kicked off a flood of contributions from AHS members. AmericanHiking hopes to grow the NTE into a multi-million dollar fund that will help finance hiking projects coast-to-coast.
Grants will normally be awarded to trail organisations and other non-profits with a trail-related focus. Grants will typically be limited (except in unusual situations) to between $1,000 and $10,000. The 1998 grants, totalling nearly $54,000, were awarded to 13 trail organisations.
US Feds wasting $1 billion in energy a year
The US government needs to lead by example, according to the Alliance to Save Energy, and quit wasting $1 billion worth of energy a year.The group and a task force of 50 energy companies and organisations have just completed a two-year study of government energy use in the US and compiled their findings in a report, Leading by Example: Improving Energy Productivity in Federal Government Facilities. The Alliance to Save Energy is a coalition of prominent business, government, environmental and consumer leaders that promotes efficient and clean use of energyworldwide.
``How can the Federal government expect businesses and others to meet climate change targets, when it's not setting the right example?'' said Alliance to Save Energy president David M Nemtzow at a recent news conference in Washington, to announce the report findings.
``The Clinton administration continues its laudable support of the Kyoto agreement to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions,'' he said. ``Two major oil companies, British Petroleum and Shell Oil, have committed to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Shell is even going beyond Kyoto and is committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 10 per cent below 1990 levels by 2002. Yet the Federal government hasn't even established a goal for itself.''
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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