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Saturday, November 28, 1998

RBI move to rein in speculation keep forwards premiums firm 

Pratibha Rathore  
Mumbai, Nov 27: The Reserve Bank of India decision to withdraw the facility of rebooking cancelled contracts for import transactions -- announced on August 20 as a measure to curb punting on the rupee -- has been keeping forward premiums stable, analysts said. The six-month annualised cover has been hovering between 7.2 and 7.8 per cent over the last few weeks.

Those importers who had earlier gone long are not willing to unwind their positions. The RBI measures aimed at discouraging importers from speculating and frequently taking short positions based on a short-term view on the spot rupee.

According to forex experts, banks are currently not paying in the market to roll over their FCNR(B) positions owing to a high cost of swaps coupled with easy liquidity conditions. The cost of swapping FCNR(B) deposits with rupee works out to around 13-14 per cent. "Thus, demand for forward cover by this sector is absent in the current market conditions," a dealer from a foreign bank said.

According to expertsclosely tracking the forward market, importers' demand for dollars which pushes up forward premiums is also non-existent. "Currently importers are reluctant to take either long or short positions in the forward market as they are not able to take a view on the spot rupee movement," a dealer from a private sector bank said.

Those importers who had earlier booked forwards have already hedged their long positions and are not willing to come out of it, dealers said. Another reason for low forward premiums when the rupee is ruling weak could also be the existence of receivers at high levels, dealers said.

Over the last few days, while the Indian currency has been slipping, forward premiums are stable. During the period, forward premiums inched up marginally by 1-3 paise compared with the fall in rupee by 12-14 paise.

On Friday, the demand for dollars rose marginally which further weakened the Indian currency by 2-3 paise. Though the rupee held at 42.53-55, premiums across all maturities fell by 1-3paise.

Mecklai Financial & Commercial Services senior vice-president KN Dey said, "The market has panicked owing to lack of inflow coupled with spot demand by corporates, which is further expected to weaken the rupee."

Experts tracking the market are of the view that by withdrawing the facility to rebook the cancelled import contracts, the central bank wanted to curb the speculative activities by active forex players. "The central bank has successfully kept importers away from the market and contained the forward premiums at low levels," a dealer from a foreign bank said.

"To give a level playing field to importers and a fillip to the forward market, the central bank will have to relax some of the measures announced in August. Otherwise, the market will remain listless owing to absence of covering by importers," dealers said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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