Copper lost heavily on London Metal Exchange last week as warehouses reported heavy increases in stocks. The metal, already low on sentiment, crashed to record lows mid-week with sings still showing a further decline.The red metal was at its lowest level since June 1987 after the warehouses were flooded by another 12,850 tonnes. Some technical selling only added to the woes. Copper was finding support at $1,555 per tonne all week but crashed to $1,522 on Friday, reflecting a global supply glut. Speculation was rife over whether Japanese smelters were shipping copper to the LME warehouse in Singapore ahead of the end of the year since they were unlikely to win major spot contracts during sales negotiations for 1999."Copper is suffering from less industrial offtake and the sluggishness will last for another year or so. But surely the metal will recover as the demand from large infrastructure projects will pick up with the slow recovery of nations around the world," says an Indian analyst with a leadingcopper producer.
The feeling is based on the fact that most of old smelters around the world are nearing permanent shutdowns while there are hardly few smelters are going on stream these days.
"China requires around 10 lakh tonnes of copper while no new project is taking off there to supplement the demand," the Indian analyst said. He felt that the copper industry would have a compound annual growth rate of at least 7 per cent this year.
Generally metals were bearish-to-dull on LME and in the domestic market. Zinc made minor gains on technically inspired buying by funds and commission houses while aluminium eased to $1302 per tonne. Tin gained $25 despite good volume selling while nickel closed at reasonable levels.
In the domestic market, copper and zinc were gainer by reasonable margins in the week. The prices spurted in the beginning of the week as a price hike by producers was very much on cards.
Hindustan Copper Ltd and Hindustan Zinc Ltd did increase metal prices towards weekend dispellingfears of a downturn in metals. HCL hiked prices of copper wire rods, wire bards and cathodes by Rs 2000 each while HZL upped the prices of slabs by Rs 1,500 per tonne.
Throughout the week both copper and zinc were firm on continuing industrial demand. Copper went up by Rs 100 while zinc was picked up by another Rs 50 to Rs 7,100 per quintal.
On LME, lead was another casualty crashing along with copper, touching the recent low of $487 before recovering marginally to the $490 levels. Nickel was quiet after shedding minor gains.
Throughout the week, major buyers were sitting on the sidelines. The Japanese, even after yen gained, did not enter the markets with big buy orders.
On the day when copper fell to new low, the dollar was crashing towards 118 yen, despite surprise rate cuts by the 11 founding members of Europe's single currency.
Aluminium however, firmed up while zinc turned softer after a rise of 3725 tonne in the warehouse stocks. nickel was easier.
China, a major player in the world metalarena, is witnessing a rise in domestic demand for aluminium. The large infrastructure projects are likely affect its aluminium exports next year.
Chinese aluminium exports were likely to fall below 280,000 tonnes in 1999 from an estimated 286,500 tonnes this year. Large infrastructure projects, especially in electrification of remote rural areas, could really hike domestic aluminium consumption to 2.40 million tonnes from this year's estimated 2.25 million tonnes.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.