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Nandini Goswami
Calcutta, Jan 4: Predictions of a shortage of the availability of exportable surplus in tea over the next 10 years will only be covered by quantum jumps in production levels, according to an in-depth industry study.
The industry has made a long-term projection which happens to be coterminus with the Ninth and Tenth Five Year plans. It has projected a production target of 1110 million kg to be set for 2006 to meet the country's export and domestic need for tea. Projections based on current trends reveal that production may fall short of target by about 136 million kg (mkg). Although current production levels have overshot the forecasted targets in the last one year and may also do so for the current year, it should be borne in mind that the tea industry which is essentially agriculture-based is prone to cyclical fluctuations.
The study indicates that an averaging out over the next eight years makes a startling revelation of a shortfall in production levels to 974 million kg. This if collated with increaseddomestic consumption data will leave little for exports. "That would be a really grave situation as export cuts cannot be compromised at any cost", said an industry watcher.
The study indicates that the exportable surplus is likely to decline over the years. Taking into account the fact that the level of exports should be maintained at 200 mkg which has been the average for the last thirty years, a fall in production levels will not be able to meet the desired targets of export at consistent levels.
According to the analyst, a production gap of 30 to 35 mkg for the next three to four years may not be too difficult to bridge provided adequate price realisation is obtained. It may be noted that domestic consumption may increase by over 170 mkg over the next eight years. The industry has argued that additional land should be brought under new plantations of tea.
Moreover, small growers who have been growing on an exponential scale can be tapped for enhancing tea production. This can be done on aregulatory basis in northern India, where small growers are not organised as yet as in south India.
Increasing replantations and infilling at the tea estates will help replenish shortages in the long run, although in the short run the industry may have to trade-off with decreased level of production in line with a loss in crop.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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