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The FE Team
The Kargil effect is expected to give the BJP-led coalition a resounding victory in the forthcoming elections, feel India's top businessmen. Most of them are certain that Atal Behari Vajpayee will be the next Prime Minister. Sonia Gandhi does not stand a chance.
In a telephonic poll conducted by The Financial Express among the country's top CEOs, directors and senior business executives, almost all the respondents said that the next government would be BJP-led. The Congress is out. The few dissenting voices were in the south, where there is a microscopic minority which believes that the Congress is in with a chance.
An overwhelming 80 per cent of the respondents (82 out of 103) said they were very sure that the next government would be led by the BJP. Even this 80 per cent, in fact, could be an underestimate because only 10 respondents actually said that there could be a Congress-led government. The remaining 11 either didn't want to hazard a guess or felt that the next government would be formedby a third party. Sharad Pawar was one of the outsiders mentioned by a very small minority as having a chance to head the next coalition.
As for a government headed by Sonia Gandhi, for most businessmen it was a strict no-no. The latest poll confirms the pattern seen in an earlier one conducted by The Financial Express last April, which showed that business is wary about having Sonia as the Prime Minister. This time too, the same result ensued--and even more emphatically. Of the CEOs and executives polled, only four people wanted to see her as the country's executive head. In fact, Manmohan Singh drew as much support. The others mentioned were Sharad Pawar and LK Advani. The rest, about 80 of them, felt that Vajpayee will be the next Prime Minister.
The poll, conducted over telephone and fax on Wednesday, asked respondents three simple questions. One, whether the government formed after the next elections would be BJP-led, Congress-led or Third Front (third party)-led. Two, who would they like tosee as Prime Minister after the poll (Vajpayee, Sonia or someone else). And three, whether they expected the economic reforms to continue no matter who won.
The third question drew a cent per cent `yes' response. Nobody--at least in corporate India--believes that anyone will reverse the reforms, though some financial sector respondents did suggest that if there is political uncertainty there could be slowdown. But, clearly, confidence in the irreversibility of reforms is total.
The respondents were scattered over several cities, with Mumbai providing the largest contingent (34), followed by Delhi (28), Calcutta (11), Chennai (11), Bangalore (10), Ahmedabad (four), Kochi (four) and Hyderabad (1).
The respondents were from a wide range of industry categories. The largest numbers were from the corporate sector (78), followed by the finance and banking sector (14) and the market and mutual fund fraternity (6). The rest were from miscellaneous sectors.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers(Bombay) Ltd.
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This story was printed from Net Express located at http://www.expressindia.com. Net Express provides a portal to India, with news from The Indian Express and The Financial Express along with sites on travel and tourism, the entertainment industry, the power sector, the environment and much more.
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