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Doubts about aid cloud Pakistan economy plans 

Ovais Subhani  
Karachi, Oct 18: Question marks over foreign aid will cloud plans by Pakistan's new army ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, to revive a moribund economy.

Financial analysts said Musharraf's pledge in a keynote Sunday address to turn the economy around and punish high-level corruption and tax evasion were worthy -- but no different to the promises made by a succession of civilian and military rulers.

Meantime the coup had thrown into question international loan programmes vital to a faltering economy.

"There was nothing in his speech that previous governmentshad not said soon after assuming power," said one analyst, who declined to be identified.

"He (Musharraf) will soon realise that it's easier saidthan done... For him it is even more tough given the country's complete Reliance on foreign donor funding, which is in doubt at the moment," he added.

Several key Western donors have hinted at possible curbs onInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) support because of Musharraf's failure to say when he will send the army back to their barracks and oversee a return to democratic politics.

The U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, William Milam, said hisgovernment was taking a wait-and-see attitude before making a decision on IMF support. European Union leaders threatened to cut off aid in a month if no timetable was given.

IMF PROGRAMME ALREADY IN DOUBTP>

Bankers said continuation of a $1.56 billion IMF programmewas vital but added that even if there are no politically motivated impediments, immediate payments from the IMF should not be expected.

"Pakistan in all likelihood will Miss Most of the programmetargets for this year, so the fund would first like to rework the numbers before lending is resumed," one banker said.

Musharraf said the military would rule only as long asnecessary and set up a National Security Council and a cabinet and think-tank to function alongside the army.

At the very start of his speech, the second since Tuesday'scoup which toppled Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government, he said restoration of investor confidence would be his top priority but announced no specific measures.

Analysts said political crises in the past few years havedefied all optimism and left foreign investors in despair about the future of a potentially wealthy state.

"The pessimism is so deep that any move by the new regimewill be looked at with a very sceptical view...and, more than words, they are required to act swiftly to forestall any further panic," one banker said.

EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY

Analysts said key issues were exchange rate stability and acommitment to honour obligations. Pakistan's image has been tarnished by a bitter row between the ousted government and independent power producers (IPPs) over electricity tariffs.

They said the authorities will have to take steps to tackletax collection, the perennial weakness of the economy, and this could lead to unpopular decisions such as an increase in utility and fuel prices.

A resolution of rows with the IPPs, natural gas exploration companies and multinational pharmaceutical companies could work as an immediate bolster to investor confidence across the board.

"If they can't do it, no one can do it," said the banker.

But some analysts said the government's unclear political agenda could create problems for the economy.

"The only thing clear at the moment is that a crackdown on (bank) loan defaulters and tax evaders would be pursued ruthlessly," one banker said.

He said a crackdown to recover an estimated 200 billion rupees ($4.0 billion) of loans to leading political figures could have a good impact on the finances of a cash-strapped government but might be seen as a political witchhunt.

"Such crackdowns in the past have only helped corner the opposition and when the objective is achieved, financial institutions were left to pursue the task on their own," he said.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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