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Sensex may face resistance at 4890 points 

By K Seshadri  
Despite much confusion as to which way the market is headed, Sensex closed firm, lending buoyancy for Tuesday. The Index opened at 4847 with a gap on the upside. Last Friday, it had closed at 4749. The strong opening invited profit-booking, which led to a dip in the first 15 minutes. Thereafter, the market stabilised. However, there were repeated bouts of high volatility, especially in the last two hours of trading.

The intra-day high for the index was at 4854, some 7 points over the opening. It closed at 4849, posting a 100 point jump day over day. Technicals show that there is quite some potential on the upside in the very short run. The index could face resistance at 4890. But more importantly one must remember that in the last two sessions the index has moved between 4694 and 4854, a range of 160 points or roughly 4 per cent.

On Monday there were several instances where stock prices zoomed up at opening and dipped badly for intra-day lows. This state of affairs will continue. The right approach for the investor is to discount the possibility that the index could move through 4890 on the upside and 4646 on the downside. There are several scrips which have built up good technical profile and will thrust northwards. What is risky, however, is that should prices rise very robustly for a single day, rest assured that further uprise cannot be sustained.

So be on the look out for profit-booking on such thrusts. The high intra-day volatility in Asian Paints and Bajaj Auto are such examples. High volume in Reliance Industries has lent it strength. It could break the resistance at Rs 354. High volatility at the ITC counter indicates its vulnerability. HLL is now quoting after its face value has been subdivided from Rs 10 to Re 1. State Bank is neither strong nor weak. Gujarat Ambuja, Grasim and Hindalco are unlikely to pull down the index. NIIT could rise to Rs 2,541, where it faces a technical resistance. Infosys has a resistance at Rs 8,940.

Investors, other than ace players should indulge in profit-booking. Taking fresh positions for short-term trading should be selective. Outside these bounds, the market is fraught with high risk in the short-term.

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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