NEW DELHI, June 6: With three days to go before the Congress presidential poll, Sitaram Kesri appears set to formalise his position as party chief going by the lukewarm response which Sharad Pawar and Rajesh Pilot have drawn so far.

The whirlwind tours made by Pawar and Pilot across the country have not resulted in buoyant support of the kind needed to dethrone Kesri. Followers of the two leaders admit as much in private. Therefore, analysts in the Kesri camp deduced that the interim party chief is all set to be the Congress head for the next two years. It is felt that even if Pawar and Pilot come together at this late stage, it may not be enough to upset Kesri's chances.

Available members of the Kesri camp today held a meeting to draw up a last minute strategy to cover up for any slips. Kesri briefed his political secretary Tariq Anwar on how to go about handling things on June 9, when around 8,000 votes will be cast in ballot boxes in state capitals. The boxes, draped in the Congress flag, will be sent to the capitals today and tomorrow for the polling.

Chief Returning Officer Oscar Fernandes held a three-hour meeting with Pradesh Returning Officers at the Parliament Annexe this evening, explaining the various aspects of the election. But the result is almost known, if the Kesri camp is to be believed. Only a silent wave against him can tilt the balance in Pawar's favour, they aver, adding that Pilot is irrelevant now.Indeed, both Kesri and Pawar have made all attempts to make Pilot redundant in the contest by asking their respective followers to give him the second preference votes. Since Pilot is widely expected to be last in the tally, the second preference votes of Kesri and Pawar have no value when Pilot is out of the race.

Pilot's second preference votes then come into the picture and with the man playing his cards close to his chest, nothing is clear who he will go with. Even if the Pilot camp votes fully for Pawar in the second preference, this will only count if Kesri manages to get less than 50 per cent of the first preference votes.

Pilot's letter to Kesri today is being interpreted as a last-ditch effort.

Pilot said the three rivals must address Congress workers jointly in the remaining time and leave the voters to make their choice. This came after Pilot spent a fair amount of time in several parts of the country.

It will take a huge loss, indeed a betrayal of sorts, in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan for Kesri to end up with less than half the first preference votes. Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Jitendra Prasada is in firm control in Uttar Pradesh with around 75 per cent of the 1,242 Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) delegates likely to abide by his decision.

Likewise, in Bihar, with 891 PCC delegates, Kesri and Tariq Anwar have ensured that their men form a sizeable majority. Former State Chief Minister Jagannath Mishra, who is staunchly anti-Kesri, does not even have a vote of his own having quit the PCC in protest. This leaves the way clear for Kesri in the country's second most politically important State.

Uttar Pradesh and Bihar together account for more than 25 per cent of the total electoral college in this election and Kesri thus begins with a solid advantage. CWC member Vijaya Bhaskara Reddy has managed things in Andhra Pradesh, with 620 PCC delegates, much to the chagrin of Pawar's campaign manager G Venkatswamy. At best, Pawar may be able to draw on 40 per cent here with Kesri having the edge.

Madhya Pradesh will be divided with the Pawar camp making a strong attempt here. The Kesri camp, which has already projected Ajit Jogi as the new PCC chief, has its nose ahead with Arjun Singh and Madhavrao Scindia joining hands against the V C Shukla-Parasram Bharadwaj duo. The state has 620 PCC delegates.

Pawar is strongest in home state of Maharashtra which has 600 PCC delegates. Here, Kesri will find it tough to make a dent and Pilot has an even tougher task. Rajasthan, where Kesri's man Ashok Gehlot is likely to be the new PCC chief, may also go for the 81-year-old former All India Congress Committee (AICC) treasurer. This state has 296 PCC delegates.

Another CWC member, Pranab Mukherjee camped in Guwahati for Kesri's cause in an area where Kesri is the weakest. Assam has 126 PCC delegates and the other six north-eastern states have an equal number. This is where Pilot should logically do well as he has, in his capacity as a Union Minister, worked for the development of the area.

Orissa and West Bengal, with J B Patnaik and Somen Mitra in charge, are in favour of Kesri thus completing the eastern coast. Karnataka is a bit of a puzzle with both Kesri and Pawar claiming good support. But the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) in the state is with Kesri and reported to him on Pawar's visit to the last detail.

Karunakaran volte-face

In a move which is seen as a salvo at Sitaram Kesri, senior Congress leader K Karunakaran today favoured change in the party leadership and endorsed Sharad Pawar's concept of collective leadership. ``His is the right approach, he added. Let us wait. Someone will emerge,'' he said when asked who should lead the party in the event of Sonia Gandhi declining to accept the offer for the top post. Karunakaran made it clear that he would not campaign for any of the three candidates contesting for the top party slot.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.