November 12: The manner in which the Asean members within the Group of 15 used the forum to advance their own interests should serve as an important lesson in realpolitik for India. To be fair to him, Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad made no bones about his priorities from the very start of the Seventh G-15 Summit which he hosted.

Even before the heads-of-state meeting got under way last Monday, he had already set the pace for pushing his country's top-of-the-mind concern -- the ongoing currency crisis in the region -- within the grouping. With an awesome sleight of hand, he managed to convert even an innocuous occasion like the G-15 trade exhibition into a platform for advancing a prescription for curing Asean's economic malaise -- regulations to control speculative currency trading.

Indeed, the fact that he managed to coax a consensus from even the recalcitrant Latin American members, who are far from anxious to stem the flow of capital -- short-term or otherwise -- into their markets, speaks volumes for his ability to lobby for his country's and region's interests. The colourful analogy used by the Nigerian delegate to illustrate the compulsions for arriving at an agreement on the currency issue -- ``when the dollar sneezes, even Asian currency markets catch a cold'' -- could well be applied to Malaysia's influence on the G-15. Mahathir had only to resort to impassioned rhetoric, and even a big emerging market like India fell in line, despite the fact that it believes, unlike Malaysia, that there is more to the Asean currency turmoil than unscrupulous currency speculation, that more fundamental economic questions also need to be addressed.

The mood of self-congratulation in the Asean fraternity over the coup that Mahathir staged is evident from the pronouncement made by a Singapore scribe that the entire G-15 conclave would have been ``reduced to irrelevance'' had it not been for Malaysia's initiative to push the currency question, and call upon the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to draw up regulations to control speculative currency trading.

The toothless forum that the G-15 has been over the seven years since its inception is reflected in this supremely arrogant statement which presumes that all other issues -- such as the South's access to capital, markets and technology of the North, the need for more meaningful South-South cooperation and a more equitable implementation of the WTO agenda on trade -- deserve to be relegated to the periphery of the summit's agenda.

The fact of the matter is, although these so-called `marginal' issues, which are central to the advancement of the developing countries, especially India, did figure in the joint communique that was issued by the leaders, there was little by way of tangible initiatives to ensure that they would not remain at the level of rhetoric.

The currency question, on the other hand, is going to remain a ``hot'' concern, thanks to the decision taken to convene an extraordinary meeting of G-15 finance ministers in Kuala Lumpur on December 1 and 2, concurrently with the Asean finance ministers' meet.

Hopefully, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram will articulate India's priority concerns at the meeting with the forcefulness and focus he is generally known to exhibit, and thereby reverse the backstage status that was accorded to them at the just-concluded summit.

India's decision to maintain its celebrated ``low profile'' at the G-15 summit proved somewhat counterproductive, notwithstanding all the claims made by the Indian delegation about winning friends and influencing people within the forum.

To give just one example. An impression conveyed by one of the senior Indian officials was that Vice-President Krishan Kant, who stood in for Prime Minister I.K. Gujral, would raise two important issues during the retreat to Malacca which would wrest some concrete benefits for India. One was an agreement for extradition treaties among the G-15 countries to combat the threat of cross-border terrorism. Another was a proposal for issuing multiple entry visas for travel within all member countries. Apparently, the first issue was raised by the Vice-President, but met with poor response within the forum, despite the fact that countries like Peru and Egypt are no less affected by the problem of terrorism. And what is worse, when questioned about it at the joint press conference at the end of the summit, Mahathir retorted that the issue was ``not on the agenda.''

Surely, if the currency question, which too, was not on the agenda, could get priority status in the discussions, India's proposal could also have been pushed through. Obviously, the Indian delegation did not adequately display its skills of persuasion. The proposal on multiple entry visas too was relegated to the sidelines, by being subsumed in a rather ineffectual reference to the ``need for easing business travel'' in the joint communique.

As far as India is concerned, these two proposals were very important. An extradition agreement would have helped New Delhi in more ways than one. After all, Ottavio Quattrochi, the businessman implicated in the Bofors scandal, cannot be arrested and brought into India for questioning only because he is safely ensconced in Malaysia, with whom India does not have an extradition treaty.

The existence of narco-terrorism, like `hot money', is a phenomenon that cuts across borders, a fact that India should have highlighted.

The issue of multiple entry visas too is something that can benefit all the countries within the G-15 grouping. Indian expertise and investment can give a fillip to G-15 trade, and add muscle to its economic standing. A country like Malaysia is depending on Indian software engineers to get its Multimedia Super Corridor off the ground. To persist in outdated visa regulations in this scenario is bad economics.

A more direct and egalitarian dialogue with the North is another proposal that India had sought to push to the forefront.On this front, too, there did not seem to be any tangible outcome. Asked about this, Mahathir said the G-15 needed a response from the G-7 to initiate a more direct dialogue. The former was still depending on conventional routes like the exchange of letters before the summits of both the groupings.

In the ultimate analysis, the G-15 needs to sidestep convention, and resort to unconventional initiatives, to transform itself into a truly powerful grouping. Hopefully, the Cairo summit to be held next May will see a qualitative leap in the forum's agenda to reflect more concretely the real issues that exercise the developing countries.

Or is that wishful thinking?

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.