On a hot afternoon last month, Rajya Sabha deputy chairperson Najma Heptulla, Karnataka PCC president Dharam Singh and local party leaders were overseeing arrangements in Bangalore for Sonia Gandhi's rally. Local Congress activists and casual labourers were hastily putting up banners and Sonia's name was variously spelt as `Soniya' and `Soniaa' among others.The mood was so casual that it seemed they were dealing something boring and not the formal start of Sonia Gandhi's campaign, an event which was to rewrite the rules of this election. A couple of hours later, Sonia dropped the Bofors bombshell and the election was off to a roaring start. The moral of this story is quite simple: The Congress is dangerously swaying between opportunism and rigor mortis with or without Sonia.
Even after 20 meetings during which Sonia logged in around 15,000 km and rattled the United Front and the BJP, the Congress network is in a state of paralysis. Almost from her very first word, Sonia became the single mosttalked-about person in what was written off as an insipid election. The Congress, which was staring at a rout of immense proportions, got its dose of ambrosia. And yet, almost incredibly, the party refuses to respond.
Small-time leaders collected a few goons and set fire to the PCC headquarters in Hyderabad because they were denied tickets. And Andhra Pradesh is a State which the Congress expects will send its biggest contingent to the next Lok Sabha. That was just one example of how much Sonia will need to do, having taken the plunge.
The APCC unit has over 100 office-bearers, a record in Congress history. Most of them don't see eye to eye. If it wasn't for Sonia, it is doubtful whether the PCC could have gathered over a lakh in any of their meetings. The inertia is so pronounced that the State Congress has yet to go for the TDP over the farmers' suicides which is potentially a vote-winning issue.
The scene is not much different in other States. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee was the sole crowd-pullerbefore she went her own way. Now, the PCC there is desperately banking on Sonia. Somen Mitra, who has Kesri's backing, continues to be a non-starter in gathering crowds. In the North-East too the party has problems aplenty. In any of the seven States there, the Congress is not on the front foot. In Meghalaya, for instance, the PCC actually produced its own manifesto.
In this situation, Sonia is ironically getting more help from the BJP, whose leaders first went into long huddles to plan a counter-strategy and came up with a manifesto which could alienate carefully cultivated allies and large sections of the society.
Sonia's logic is simple and effective: the Congress has an in-built ability for self-destruction and must thus be kept at a distance. Which is why none of the party high command, barring a few like Sitaram Kesri, are allowed anywhere near Sonia on a dais. She has so far sustained a momentum to her efforts which has puzzled the BJP.
Indeed, the BJP's manifesto reads like that of a partyalready in power. Which is exactly the kind of a mistake Sonia is not committing. While the BJP has now gone on record with the temple issue, Sonia has not yet named a single personality or party by name. She refers to the BJP in a dismissive and abstract manner which is akin to dealing with an irritating child, not a full-grown enemy. Predictably, this has got the BJP worked up. Beginning now, the star Congress campaigner will hit the heartland of the country. That is a land full of possibilities and, perhaps, tired of the violence and battles that caste-based and religion-based politics are never far from.
This is the second stage of the Sonia effect. The first was one of surprise where she so comfortably took to politics and rubbished all predictions. Indira Gandhi was once a ``goongi gudia (a dumb doll)'' and Sonia was ``The Sphinx''. The Sphinx spoke and it was the talk of the town. The current stage will be one of confrontation. Should Sonia come out of this stage without much damage, shewould have done the cause of the BJP and the UF great harm.
That, however, doesn't equate to a Congress rebirth. Its leaders are too full of old habits to change. For example, the Rajya Sabha section of the CWC has stayed home not making the slightest effort to go public. Congress vice-president Jitendra Prasada made tall claims of visiting all parts of the country but hasn't yet stirred. Pranab Mukherjee has cultivated the image of being a ``Congress intellectual'' so much that he hasn't done much apart from drafting party positions on issues.
For a novice in active politics, Sonia has started off very well. The Congress, though, has yet to match her efforts and this could well be the confrontation of the future. Going by 10 Janpath's plans, Rahul and Priyanka are likely to end up as Sonia's biggest assets. And that is simply not enough.
Bofors, Babri, Bluestar, women's reservation, stability, secularism, sacrifice, welfare are all fine topics for a pre-poll campaign which Sonia has used well. But ina post-poll situation, the Congress will need people with a capacity for hard work. How much Sonia can catalyse this will hold the key to a Congress future.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
