Indian Express: Resonance of distant blasts

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Resonance of distant blasts

Nirmala George

It is difficult to be Japanese and remain indifferent to the bomb. With the horrific legacy of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, the Japanese people have ever since exhibited a strong allergy towards nuclear weapons. But the Japanese state has chosen to live for over 50 years now under the protective shield of the American nuclear umbrella. This duality in the nuclear stance of Japan is coming under greater public scrutiny in the aftermath of the Indian nuclear tests.

Once again the never-quite-closed argument on Japan's acceptance of the US nuclear umbrella -- whether or not Tokyo should shake it off and develop its own nuclear capability -- is powering a fresh round of introspection.

"The Indian nuclear tests did not take the strategic community here by surprise. But it has certainly provided an opportunity for Japan to think of the security implications," said Ryukichi Imai, former Ambassador to the UN, now with the Tokyo-based Institute for International Policy Studies.

According to Ministry of It is difficult to be Japanese and remain indifferent to the bomb. With the horrific legacy of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, the Japanese people have ever since exhibited a strong allergy towards nuclear weapons. But the Japanese state has chosen to live for over 50 years now under the protective shield of the American nuclear umbrella. This duality in the nuclear stance of Japan is coming under greater public scrutiny in the aftermath of the Indian nuclear tests.

According to Ministry ofForeign Affairs officials, Japan's nuclear position was debated widely in the mid-1990s when the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) came up for indefinite extension. There was a feeling that Tokyo was making a self-sacrifice by agreeing to make the NPT a permanent treaty. The indefinite extension of the NPT, the Japanese knew, would freeze the nuclear assymetry between Beijing and Tokyo.

Analysts here believe that there may be conditions under which the debate on the nuclear option could resurface. "If we find our small neighbour (diplomatese for North Korea) has a nuclear bomb, the issue may open up again", said a Foreign Ministry official who did not wish to be named.

There is also the traditionally uneasy relationship that Japan shares with China. Living in the shadow of a nuclear China, fast rising as an economic super power, Japan is concerned that its own economy remains mired in a recessionary whirlpool. Though Japanese officials tend to make light of any threats from China, Beijing'smilitarism is never far from the Japanese mind.

The debate on Japan's defence strategy, and its nuclear position in particular, will acquire a fresh momentum this fall when the Japanese parliament, the Diet, begins discussion on Japan's security and considers the `Defence Guidelines' which will direct Japanese policy in the future.

The sense that Japan should make more efforts to protect itself is gaining ground even within the ranks of the government-funded think-tanks like the National Institute of Defence Studies. Analysts at the NIDS admitted that there was a need for a rethinking of Japan's security scenario hinting that an independent nuclear deterrent could be among the possible outcomes.

The introspection on the nuclear question also catches Japan at a time when its confidence is at a low ebb.

President Clinton's high-profile visit to China in June this year and the new-found bonhomie between Washington and Beijing are not lost on Japan. Fears of being marginalised are very real and analystshere wonder if the earlier Japan-bashing that the West indulged in was not preferable to `Japan-passing' (Clinton's decision not to have a stopover in Tokyo en route Beijing) or even `Japan-nothing'.

Its economic confidence buffeted by the ongoing recession and a downslide of the Yen, Washington's critique of the paralysis gripping Japanese politicians even as America cozies up to the Chinese have left the Japanese with a feeling of having been downgraded unfairly. "The Japanese find themselves edgy and irritated. There is a mismatch between U S expectations and reality", said Akihito Tanaka, Professor of International Politics at Tokyo University.

And with the edginess comes uncertainties about America's reliability as an ally having the privilege of its finger on the nuclear bomb. Would Washington be really prepared to defend Japan against China? Some see the best course for Japan is to liberate itself from the uncertainties of Sino-American relations by walking out of the American nuclear umbrella,declare an independent foreign policy underwritten by its own national nuclear deterrent.

This course is strongly opposed by many in Japan. Professor Akio Watanabe at the Aoyoma Gakuin University's School of International Politics, Economics and Business feels it is not `realistic' to think Japan will shirk off the US nuclear umbrella. With a neighbourhood bristling with nuclear weapon states, Russia and China and a possibly nuclear-armed North Korea, Japan "has to have some mechanism to protect itself. And for this the American nuclear umbrella is the most feasible option", Watanabe said.

While the debate on moving out of the shade of the nuclear umbrella goes on, for now Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi has ruled out any moves to end Japanese security dependence on the US nuclear capability.

In Nagasaki for ceremonies to mark the bombing of the city 53 years ago, the new Prime Minister was confronted with the long-standing demand of successive Nagasaki mayors that Japan should become independent of theAmerican nuclear umbrella.

At a press conference that followed Obuchi was categorical. "The Japanse government will not change its policy which is based on international realities", he declared.

Japan wants the best of both worlds: remaining within the cosy comfort of the American nuclear umbrella while being free to preach nuclear-abstinence to others. But as long as Japan persists with its nuclear ambivalence, its non-proliferation sermons to India will ring hollow.

Net Express

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This story was printed from Net Express located at http://www.expressindia.com. Net Express provides a portal to India, with news from The Indian Express and The Financial Express along with sites on travel and tourism, the entertainment industry, the power sector, the environment and much more.

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