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What should have been routine winter exercises by India's armed forces have become a new point of controversy thanks to Islamabad's decision to conduct military exercises of its own around the same time. As the gratuitous comments in a British newspaper and from an official Chinese spokesperson in Beijing show, it is easy to lose a sense of perspective when one is unable to think beyond stereotypes or when one is extrapolating from one's own action in the Taiwan Straits.
There is no need for anyone else to come down to those levels and start spreading alarm. Ideally, of course, Indian exercises should have been held at a time less fraught with symbolism than the middle of a long-delayed diplomatic dialogue between India and Pakistan. But winter comes round only once a year and perhaps there was no way of predicting whether drills before or after the scheduled talks in Islamabad and New Delhi would have given more or less scope for misunderstanding.
Furthermore, no time would be the right time for thosedetermined to make the wrong reading. New Delhi took the usual precautions and informed Islamabad well in advance of its plans in the Rajasthan sector. No doubt, New Delhi was similarly advised of Islamabad's plans in Punjab and Sindh once they were made. As long as military commanders on both sides know what to expect there is no cause for concern on the ground. It will be necessary, however, to keep a check on mischief-makers who want to play politics with the situation to serve their own ends. In that context, appropriate public statements from the political leadership in the two countries would be reassuring.
The leadership of Pakistan's army and intelligence services is in a state of flux and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is in the process of reasserting his authority. A certain degree of political unpredictability is therefore to be expected. That, rather than the winter exercises, raises doubts about how much progress can be made at the October talks.
The statement from Pakistan's foreign ministryspokesman Tariq Altaf that planned military exercises vitiate the atmosphere for an India-Pakistan dialogue would seem to arise from the current political confusion in Islamabad. There is no reason why routine military business outside should disturb the diplomatic engagement around a table if the two sides are serious about resolving differences. Indeed, it can be argued the exercises will help concentrate minds on the range of confidence-building measures which India and Pakistan should put in place without further loss of time.
The pre-talks verbal skirmishing on Kashmir is not a happy omen. One must hope that, as has often been the case, what Pakistan's leaders say publicly are meant for domestic consumption and that its diplomats will take a more reasoned position at the table. As important as it is to get the talks started, it should be recognised that no clear outcome will be possible after one round, especially given the current political situation in Pakistan. What takes place in Islamabad canonly be of an exploratory nature, working out sub-agendas or broad principles and outlines in order to continue the dialogue.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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