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T V R Shenoy
Atithi devo bhava', runs the old tag, loosely but inaccurately translated as `a guest represents the Almighty'. The Sanskrit word atithi is something for which there is no precise equivalent in English; it is best understood as connoting an `unexpected' or `uninvited', but never unwelcome, guest. The idea is that anyone who comes to you should be honoured without prejudice.
Let it be recorded in the annals of Indian politics that Raj Narain and Hemawati Nandan Bahuguna honoured this sentiment fully when each played the host on two historic occasions. The first such came when the late Sanjay Gandhi paid a call on Raj Narain, court jester in Chaudhary Charan Singh's durbar. The second was when both Indira Gandhi and her son visited Bahuguna, then Union Finance Minister in the short-lived Charan Singh ministry.
Those of us who were around in 1979 know what ensued after each of those unexpected visits. Charan Singh was inspired to raise the banner of revolt against Prime Minister Morarji Desai, thusaborting the first non-Congress government. And that ministry of defectors collapsed without facing the Lok Sabha even once around the time that the Nehru-Gandhi family called on Bahuguna. (He himself found a berth in the Union Cabinet after Indira Gandhi's second coming).
Sonia Gandhi, as we all know, honed her skills at her mother-in-law's feet. Which is why alarm-bells should be ringing when we hear that she was H.D. Deve Gowda's atithi.
As I understand, however, Deve Gowda was not the Congress president's first choice to play host. She would have loved to have had the luxury enjoyed by her in-laws nineteen years ago, finding some gullible Trojan to drag in the horse left at his gate. However, there is nobody in the BJP silly enough to betray Atal Behari Vajpayee.
But that isn't really all that much of a setback for the Congress president. She knows, as the recent Assembly polls proved, that there is a hard core of BJP voters who are prepared to stick by the party no matter what happens. Theyare not going to turn to the Congress, not even for Sonia Gandhi at her persuasive best. (If anything, the fact that she is still perceived as a foreigner is a strong disincentive).
But if Sonia Gandhi and her party can't hijack the BJP's supporters, they can definitely try to consolidate the anti-BJP vote in their own favour. There are roughly 220 Lok Sabha members today who obey neither the BJP's nor the Congress's whip. If the Congress can win them over or a hefty chunk at any rate it can romp back into the Central Secretariat. And this is where H.D. Deve Gowda enters the picture.
Sonia Gandhi is in no hurry to form a ministry. She knows perfectly well that it will be incredibly tough to run the government given the arithmetic of the Lok Sabha and the ongoing economic recession. She will be condemned either for becoming a prisoner of indecision or for taking tough but unpopular decisions. But she is caught between a Congress that is slavering for power and the general reluctance to force a GeneralElection so soon after the last one.
However, Congressmen will keep quiet if their High Command gives at least the impression of activity. Sonia Gandhi kills two birds by parleying with the scattered remnants of what used to be the United Front. She demonstrates to her own party that she is serious about challenging the ruling party and she can show India at large just how useless the Third Front is as an alternative to the BJP. And if by some chance another United Front ministry springs up, well, it can be pulled down at a time of the Congress's choosing.
But who shall lead the Trojan Horse into the massed ranks of the Third Front? Mulayam Singh Yadav has been ruled out of hand as an option; reviving the Congress means wresting back voters from his Samajwadi Party. An alliance with Laloo Prasad Yadav is still possible, but it wouldn't go down very well with voters. (Or even the Congress's Bihar unit!) The Left Front has too many differences with the Congress to be long-term allies.
That leaves theJanata Dal, once India's ruling party and now reduced to half-a-dozen members in the Lok Sabha, two of whom are former prime ministers. There is also a third ex-prime minister, V.P. Singh, who has taken temporary sanyaasa from active politics. But he is irrelevant to the Congress's plans given that Sonia Gandhi doesn't trust him.
Of the other former prime ministers, Inder Kumar Gujral is nothing more than a figurehead, someone who couldn't win his own seat without support from the Akali Dal. When you come right down to it, the only real leader left in the Janata Dal is Deve Gowda. True, the Janata Dal could win only three of the 28 Lok Sabha seats from Karnataka. But that wasn't such a bad show given that the party was squeezed between the Congress and the BJP-Lok Shakti tie-up.
But the Congress is now prepared to give Deve Gowda his head in Delhi, with past rancour being conveniently passed off as Sitaram Kesri's fault. Nobody seriously expects him to succeed in reuniting the United Front and forming aministry. (The numbers simply aren't there any longer; the Third Front lost about a hundred seats in the last General Election). But it will stir up a lot of confusion, a turbulence that will serve the interests of the Congress.
If nothing else, it forces Deve Gowda to come to terms with the Congress in Karnataka where Assembly elections are due in less than a year. The Congress may lose a three-way contest. But its chances improve manifold if it can manage a straight race against the BJP-Lok Shakti alliance.
Sonia Gandhi is taking quite a gamble with this strategy. She is betting that the former United Front can't reunite and she is calculating that the BJP can't get its act together. What else can she do right now?
As for the BJP and its allies, the status quo remains intact. It is up to the ministers to prove that Sonia Gandhi has miscalculated in thinking that they are condemned to being ineffective. And how much time do they have to prove the contrary? Well, just as long as the day that a certainmansion in Poes Garden, Chennai, doesn't receive a VVIP atithi.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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This story was printed from Net Express located at http://www.expressindia.com. Net Express provides a portal to India, with news from The Indian Express and The Financial Express along with sites on travel and tourism, the entertainment industry, the power sector, the environment and much more.
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