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Saturday, January 16, 1999

I, the President of India, decree ...

Sunil Jain  
A couple of years ago, a well-connected industrialist was facing serious problems when some government-owned undertakings refused to grant the concessions he wanted. Driven to desperation, he told his political friends, why not get a presidential decree? After all, the president is the eventual owner of all these undertakings, isn't he?

You'd think that the matter ended here, with the absurd suggestion just thrown out of the window. But no, the government actually held a couple of meetings on the matter. Fortunately, better sense prevailed, no presidential decree was sought, though every attempt was still made to get the undertakings to play ball. Two governments have come into power since and, with a bit of give and take on both sides, the industrialist has more or less got his work done, though without invoking a presidential decree.

It is not the purpose of this writer to say that industry should not get its work done or that bureaucrats should be allowed to put all manner of roadblocks. Bureaucrats,after all, go strictly by the book, a book of rules and regulations which in most cases was applicable only in the pre-reforms days. The point, however, is that industry is also going to such absurd lengths to get the government to give it bailouts that it isn't funny.

First, industrialists convinced Prime Minister Vajpayee that it was his job to create demand for them. So he came up with a Rs 1,25,000 crore roadways project (it began with being a Rs 28,000 crore one) which presumably is good enough to buy up all the steel and cement that Indian industry can't sell elsewhere for the next five to 10 years. And when commercial vehicle sales flagged, instead of cutting its costs, industry got the finance ministry to lower the excise duty and offer a host of other sops. In other parts of the world, by contrast, industrial downturns are times when companies go in for major restructuring and ruthless downsizing to become more competitive.

After all, even in the Indian scenario, when it became clear that thegovernment wouldn't be doing anything for the passenger car segment, Maruti tightened its belt considerably and cut its prices by as much as Rs 50,000 per car. Uno did it by much more, and most others followed suit. But with the government obviating the need for this by giving bailouts, it's unlikely that our industrialists will ever be forced to the wall. Eight years after reforms began, several highly-respected Indian industrialists continue to run huge losses in their companies and siphon off funds as well. Not one, however, has been removed from any company.

They've also managed to convince the government, with some exceptions, that it would be totally unfair to encash the bank guarantees of telecom companies who continue to default on their license fee commitments. The fact that the government is now thinking of changing the existing license structure is seen as further strengthening of their case. The point, however, is that these changes are being contemplated to take into account changes intechnology which make the existing licensing structure outdated. So, even if a new telecom policy is to be announced, the industry must still be forced to pay up its past dues, or pay the price for not doing so.

The fact is that most telecom players totally misread the market dynamics and invested too much. But that's what competition is all about, isn't it? You pay the price for making mistakes. Besides, even then, canny players like Max, for example, managed to make a killing on their license. Obviously then, the doomsday scenario painted for the government is a bit exaggerated.

Industry, of course, has done such a good job of convincing the government that if they're not bailed out, they will have to close their units, thousands of jobs will be lost, and all this will be laid at the BJP's door. Which is why, when journalists such as I protest against the increasingly frequent bailouts, officials in charge of the government's dole section get charged up. What is the government supposed to do, they arguepassionately, when industry gets hit? Allow it to go under, so that we can be flooded with imports? That's the kind of argument that suits MNC interests. Unfortunately, they add, most of you in the press are falling prey to it.

The latest in this macabre drama, of course, is the way that the finance ministry is pressuring financial institutions (FIs) to come to the rescue of the steel industry which is reeling under the threat of exceptionally low-priced imports and next to no demand. A meeting was called last week, by Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha, with IDBI and UTI, and the FIs were asked to try and figure out ways in which to lend more funds to companies such as Essar and Mukand -- the FIs which have got huge exposures to these companies are wary of lending more to them, given their precarious finances.

With neither the finance ministry nor the FIs willing to come out with the full facts of what transpired, it is suspected that a massive bailout is being worked upon. The finance ministry, however,insists that it is, in fact, forcing the steel companies to bring in large funds of their own as well, by selling off other assets. In the case of Essar Steel, for instance, the ministry says Essar could sell of its power plant and perhaps even a large stake in its proposed refinery, to bring in funds before the FIs make any more loans. Given the high secrecy, one obviously doesn't know the exact truth. But if the finance ministry actually manages to force industrialists to put some of their own funds on the table, it signals a welcome change.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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