Is the gradual but insistent growth of BSP in this part of Madhya Pradesh the primary reason why Madhavrao Scindia has packed his bags in Gwalior and rushed to Guna? The question is on many lips. In Gwalior, a pall of gloom seems to have engulfed the Congress camp after Scindia's departure. And Jaybhan Singh Pavaiya, the BJP candidate who has emerged as a front-runner for the Gwalior seat has the BSP -- and not the Congress -- breathing down his neck. An interesting turnaround for a constituency whose voters could never really pierce the Royalty-Congress halo which shone ever so brightly during election time.

Madhavrao Scindia is candid enough to admit the existence of the forces of change that have been sweeping across the region. The emergence of the BSP in UP engulfed not only areas like Agra and Allahabad but, as he points out, ``Etawah, Jhansi and Bina too''. It was but natural that Gwalior would not remain unswayed.

``One has to understand the urge to share power. This has led to the inevitable emergence of new social groups,'' Scindia pointed out. But in the very next breath, he expressed the hope that this was a temporary phase and eventually a secular, bipolar grouping would wipe out groups that survive on caste-and-community politics.

Interestingly, the Congress, as symbolised by Scindia in this part of MP, is now for the first time under the two-pronged attack of the BSP and the BJP. Pavaiya, who is known for his vituperative anti-royal family (as represented by Madhavrao, and not Rajmata, who's in the BJP, that is!) rhetoric is again on a venom-spitting spree. Recently, he likened himself to Ch-anakya who had vowed not to tie his hair till he decimated Nand Raja as personified by Scindia here.

But more than damaging Congress prospects -- which in any case he has done in Gwalior -- a hard-hitting Pavaiya, it is being increasingly felt, has actually benefitted the BSP. With no support base among the Dalits and Muslims, his utterances have only led to these groups regrouping themselves around the BSP.

The BSP's strategy in this Gwalior-Shivpur-Guna belt of Madhya Pradesh shows the party has come a long way since its birth a decade ago in neighboring UP. It may seem strange but in Guna, where its candidates bagged over 1.10 lakh votes in the last elections, the party has not fielded anybody this time.

Sanjay Ojha, a local BSP leader, explained: ``We have decided to fight on only those seats where the Congress is weak. We might have scored a lot in Guna last time but the situation is different now. Scindia's victory is almost pucca, so what's the point in staging a losing fight. In Gwalior, however, we hold the winning card as Congress candidate Chandra Mohan Nagori is lagging far behind the BJP. This is the place for us to go for the kill.''

The BSP's aspirant for the Gwalior seat, Phool Singh Baraia, though not as acid-spewing as Pavaiya against the palace, has equated Madhavrao Scindia with the forces of feudalism. As Kanshi Ram said, ``We may be lacking in money power but not in muscle power. The time has come for us to defeat feudalism and wrest power from these forces.'' He added that the BSP's aim this time is to increase its votes by at least 10 per cent in MP.

Madhavrao Scindia denies the charge of feudalism. ``One of the biggest manifestations of feudalism is the `rising son' syndrome. Many a party which boast of secular credentials are afflicted by this, but not me. I have decided that as long I remain in active electoral politics, my son will not join politics.''

As of now, Guna is considered to be a ``safe bet'' for the Scindias, irrespective of the party they belong to. Madhavrao's ear-to-ear smile as his motorcade (also carrying CM Digvijay Singh) scoured the bylanes of Shivpuri on the last evening of campaigning gave enough indication that a `contest' was far from his mind. At least for the time being. After all, as a BSP activist put it mildly, Guna is situated next to Gwalior. ``Perhaps one of these days...'' he muttered.