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Kalyan Singh's long awaited exit and the manner of his going do not improve the chances of political stability in Uttar Pradesh. This controversial chief minister ought to have been sent packing long ago. But his skills at political manipulation, invaluable for bringing the BJP back to power in the state with help from Congress and Janata Dal rebels, were used in his own behalf as well and kept his rivals at bay. The debacle in the Lok Sabha poll gave the high command the excuse it needed to get rid of him but it has not been easy. With the leadership failing to reach some sort of compromise with him in order to soften the blow, Kalyan Singh is left spewing fire at Atal Behari Vajpayee. Nor has the alleged promise of accommodation in the Union cabinet silenced him. On the contrary, he has given notice that he will keep the pot on the boil in UP and disturb the equation at the Centre by playing the martyr for OBCs and by the Ayodhya card for the hard right.
That nothing has been settled within the stateparty nor between the high command and Kalyan Singh can only mean bad news for UP and a continuation in a new form of the quarrels which disfigured the party, distracted attention from the business of government and led to popular discontent. The BJP leadership clearly does not have a post-Kalyan Singh script and even the choice of the new chief minister smacks of tentativeness and uncertainty.
The 73-year old Ram Prakash Gupta, foisted on surprised partymen and allies without even the semblance of consultation, has been recalled from virtual retirement to keep the peace between factions. It will be a tough job coping on one side with Kalyan Singh's disruptive activities and on the other with a powerful entrenched troika. Lalji Tandon, Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra may have agreed to stay out of the running for chief minister but will certainly not have given up their ambitions or yielded any of their powers of patronage.
The logic in Kalyan Singh's exit stance is clear enough. In using the discardedlanguage of the BJP -- the Ram temple, Article 370 etc -- he is trying to hold on to and broaden his following by recreating the journey of L. K. Advani's rath yatra. Only this time it will not run through the country but through the BJP. The irony of the BJP's old weapon of religious mobilisation being turned upon it by one of its own stalwarts will not be missed by anyone. Kalyan Singh's bid to re-energise the right wing to counter the so-called liberal wing can of course cause mischief in UP and within the party. It has been seen to happen before and could happen again.
However a great deal of water has flowed down the Ganga in the last ten years. The BJP itself has of necessity adopted a centrist stance in order to form governing coalitions of 18 and 24 parties. Consequently it has been able to enjoy the benefits and reap the rewards of centrism. Even die-hard temple builders will not easily give up all that merely because dismissed leaders like Kalyan Singh bait Vajpayee. But no one shouldunderestimate the potential for trouble if the old agenda is revived and draws disgruntled elements in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar around it. The best counter-strategy is good governance and Ram Prakash Gupta must be helped to provide it.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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