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Currency futures score over stocks

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Bloomberg

Posted: Dec 22, 2010 at 0037 hrs IST

The country’s two-year-old market for currency futures is growing faster than that for stocks after attracting individual investors with transaction costs that are almost 50% lower. The average volume of bets on the rupee’s value at a future date jumped more than threefold this year to $3.2 billion a day on the National Stock Exchange of India, which introduced the contracts in September 2008. Average daily turnover in the decade-old equity derivatives market rose 56% to $22 billion, according to the bourse’s website.

“Currency trading can be a thriller,” said Aarukettil Krishnankutty Sugunan, a 61-year-old glass and plywood merchant based in the southern Indian city of Kochi. “Broker fee and margin amounts are very low in rupee, and that allows me to make bigger bets.”

Investors are moving into futures as the median forecast of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg shows the rupee will climb 2.2% by the end of March, outperforming Asia’s most-traded currencies except South Korean won, the Philippine peso and Malaysia’s ringgit. One-month volatility, a measure of exchange- rate swings used to price options, is the second highest in the region at 9.7%, increasing scope for traders to make a profit.

The rupee’s 2.9% gain this year was driven by inflows from overseas investors seeking to benefit from the nation’s higher yields. India’s three-year government bond yield of 7.37% is the highest among the major emerging economies except Brazil, where similar-maturity notes pay 12.65 percent. Comparable securities offer 3.26 percent in China and 7.10 percent in Russia.

Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, a brokerage partly owned by France’s largest bank, charges 200 rupees ($4.40) as commission on a foreign-exchange investment of 1 million rupees, compared with 385 rupees for stock futures.

The brokerage requires individuals to put down 3% of planned rupee-futures investments, known as a margin payment, compared with at least 10% for equity derivatives. Rupee derivatives are also exempt from a securities transaction tax that is levied on all other exchange-traded securities, Renjith RG, the Mumbai-based head of sales at Geojit BNP Paribas, said in an interview on December 16.

“It’s much easier for short-term traders to enter and exit currency futures because of the lower margin requirements,” Renjith said. “The absence of a transaction tax helps reduce the broker fee.”

Derivatives are contracts whose values are tied to assets including stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, or events such as changes in interest rates or the weather. India’s currency was the world’s most-traded in the futures markets in the first half of 2010, followed by the dollar and the euro, according to data from the Washington-based Futures Industry Association.

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