The number of private vehicles, presently at 14 lakh, is set to zoom to 32 lakh by 2031, says the feasibility report generated by the Transportation Systems Engineering Group of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Mumbai on behalf of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation and submitted to Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC).

While the growth of city limits will dilute to an extent the density of vehicle population on the roads, the fact that even a viable public transport system that’s certain to be in place in the next two decades is not likely to impact the growth of private vehicle ownership will be a source of worry for the city planners.

The findings, based on data provided by the Regional Transport Office (RTO), say that by 2021, Pune will have 20.99 lakh two-wheelers and 5.94 lakh cars by 2021. This would further rise to 24.34 lakh two-wheelers and 7.69 lakh cars by 2031, which means the city will by then have as many as 447 two-wheelers and 141 cars per 1,000 people.

The report mentions that the number of two-wheelers in 1993 was 2.35 lakh and that of cars was 29,159. In year 2000, the number of two-wheelers crossed 5.51 lakh, while that of the cars went beyond 95,950, making it 227 two-wheelers and 39 cars per 1,000 people. The total number of two-wheelers and cars in 2007 is 11.89 lakh and 2.31 lakh respectively, which means that out of 1,000 people 367 own two-wheelers and 71 own cars.

The vehicle ownership data is available for two regions, namely, PMC and Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporations (PCMC). The classified number of vehicles (all types) was collected from 1993 onwards.

“It was observed that the number of private vehicles per thousand people is growing steadily. This clearly shows the inclination of people towards private vehicles. The income level and the state of public transport in Pune also influence the trend. The vehicle ownership characteristics of PMC and PCMC were found to be very distinct and thus modeling has been done differently for both the areas,” says the report.

As per the report, the private vehicle ownership in PMC was increasing more rapidly as compared to PCMC as Pimpri-Chinchwad would have to face only 8.79 lakh two-wheelers and 2.48 lakh cars by 2031.

“If the comprehensive traffic mobility plan is not drafted and executed for the city quickly, the real picture will be worse than the current projections, given the rapid growth that the city is witnessing,” said BJP corporator Ujjwal Keskar.