“The trend suggests that the overall strategy is working. In 2006-07, 36 people per 10,000 were infected, now the number is 29. That’s quite a decline,” said Damodar Bachani, Dy DG, Department of AIDS Control.

Prevalence continues to be concentrated in high risk groups — data for 2008-09 identify them as injecting drug users (9.2%), men having sex with men (7.3%), female sex workers (4.9%) and sexually-transmitted diseases clinic attendees (2.5%). Prevalence among ante-natal care clinic attendees is lower, at 0.49%.

Of the six states — Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Nagaland and Manipur — that showed a high prevalence in earlier years, all except two — Andhra Pradesh and Nagaland — have seen the median HIV prevalence among ante-natal care clinic attendees fall under 1%.

“Andhra Pradesh continues to be a problem state. The numbers suggest that every hundredth woman coming to the ante-natal care clinic may be infected,” Bachani said.

In terms of overall prevalence, Manipur has declined to 0.54% from 1.68% — the highest in the country — in 2007. “However, prevalence among high-risk groups has gone up,” Dr Bachani said.