The Assembly

• The Karnataka legislative assembly is a 224-member assembly of elected representatives. One additional member is nominated. The simple majority mark is 113.

• The total number of reserved constituencies for scheduled castes and tribes for the current elections is 51--up from 35 in the 2004 polls--following delimitation of constituencies. The SC seats are 36 and ST seats are 15.

• Karnataka is the first state to go to elections following the delimitation process. Voters and candidates have taken a while to understand the new electoral jurisdictions.

The Polls

Elections will be held in three phases.

Phase 1 on May 10 will cover 11 districts and 89 constituencies. The 11 districts that will go to the polls are the southernmost ones in the state--Bangalore Urban, Bangalore Rural, Ramanagara, Mandya, Chamarajnagar, Mysore, Kodagu, Hassan, Tumkur, Chikaballapur and Kolar.

Phase 2 on May 16 will cover 10 central and coastal districts and a total of 66 constituencies of the state. The districts of Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, Uttara Kannada in the coastal belt; Shimoga and Chikamagalur in the Western Ghats; Davangere, Chitradurga, Bellary, Koppal and Raichur in the plains will be covered in this phase.

Phase 3 on May 22 will cover eight districts and 69 seats in the northern most part of the state. Districts bordering Maharashtra are referred to as the Bombay-Karnataka districts and others bordering Andhra Pradesh are referred to as the Hyderabad-Karnataka districts. The districts are Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Dharwad, Gadag, Haveri, Gulbarga and Bidar.

Results May 25

CASTE AND THE BALLOT

Caste lines become distinct as political parties draw their battle lines.

Lingayats make up nearly 30% per cent of the population and are largely spread over the northern districts. The Lingayats are a progressive 12th century breakaway Hindu group, comprising various original classes of people including Brahmins and Dalits, brought together mainly by the saint Basavanna.

Vokkaligas have been the biggest rivals of the Lingayats in the power struggles in Karnataka. They make up 20 per cent of the population and are spread over the more fertile southern districts that go to the polls in the first phase. An agricultural community, the Vokkaligas are similar to the Kurmis in the north.

Dalits and OBCs comprising of several sub-groups make up nearly 30 per cent of the population. They are spread across constituencies in the state.

Muslims make up 10 per cent of the population and are spread around constituencies.

Brahmins who make up around four per cent are present mostly in urban constituencies and in some parts of districts in the Western Ghats.

Main issues

• Desire for a stable government with ability to provide progress

• Rainbow coalition of communities versus Lingayats

• The betrayal of the BJP and Yeddyurappa, anger against JD-S

• Alignment of secular parties to keep communal forces at bay

• Rising price situation

• Promises made to poor including free television sets

• Schemes introduced for rural sector by UPA and JD(S)-BJP governments

Past Results

In the run up to the 2004 elections then Congress Chief Minister S M Krishna, who came to power in 1999 on the back of 136 seats, was expected to lead his party to victory. However the 2004 polls threw up a hung assembly with the BJP winning 79 seats, the Congress 65 and the JDS 58. First the Congress and JD-S ruled the state for nearly 18 months. The JD-S then aligned with the BJP to rule the state for 20 months before walking out on the BJP.

• For the JD-S who ruled the state between 1994 and 1999 the 2004 result was a huge bonus given the routing they received amidst it's own splintering in 1999.

• Prior to 1994, a non-Congress government ruled the state only between 1983 and 1989 when a coalition of the Janata Party, Kranti Ranga and the BJP were in power.

Battlelines

The caste foundation the Congress is going into for this election is that of the backward castes, the Dalits and the minorities. The Congress is also in contention for the votes of the Vokkaligas since large numbers of voters from the community are expected to have fallen out of favor with the Janata Dal-Secular who despite their identity as a Vokkaliga party emerged as spoilsports to the governments that were formed after the 2004 polls. There is no strong resentment to the Congress in the state. The party has not projected a CM candidate but has many contenders including SC leader Mallikarjun Kharge and OBC leader Siddaramaiah. The party has promised television sets and rice to the poor.

The BJP has distinctly identified itself as a Lingayat party. It is pinning hopes on the sympathy factor of being ditched by the JD-S to bring it to power. It is also relying on its performance in the coalition with the JD-S as a key vote puller. But there is no strong wave in its favor. The BJP has projected B.S. Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, as the CM.

The JD-S is down but not out and is expected to garner at least a dozen seats to be in a position for H.D. Devegowda to play a few power games with Independents and others

REGION WISE BATTLES

South The battle is essentially between the Congress and the JDS. It is the Vokkaliga heartland and both S.M. Krishna and Devegowda will be toiling for votes. The Congress is not expected to directly attack the Gowdas or the JD-S in poll campaigns in this region for fear of alienating the Vokkaligas. The JD-S clinched over 60 per cent of the seats in the region the last time around and the Congress is expected to turn that around this time. 28 constituencies in the Bangalore urban region are expected to witness a direct Congress-BJP fight.

Centre The fight is likely to be more three pronged while the coastal districts that has been dominated by the BJP in recent times is expected to see a more even BJP-Congress battle. The Congress is relying on the consolidation of minority votes that was earlier divided with the JDS to win seats here.

North Bombay Karnataka region is expected to see a BJP-Congress battle with the BJP enjoying an advantage, while the Hyderabad-Karnataka areas will see similar battles but with the JDS also being a key contender.

RESULTS 2004 ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS