With 65 vacancies, including three in the nominated category, arising in the next three months, the composition of the Council of States is likely to change, but there is little for the UPA to cheer about as it may even see a further decline in numbers unless it does extremely well in the ensuing Assembly elections, especially in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Despite other vacancies coming up later, till the end of its term in 2014, the UPA will continue to be in a minority.

Currently, the UPA has 95 MPs in the 243-member Rajya Sabha. Sixty-five members will retire by April 2 this year. Excluding the nominated category, elections are likely to be held for three seats from Delhi in January, one from Sikkim in February and 58 from 15 other states in March. Of these 62 seats, the UPA currently has 23, including 18 of the Congress, two of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and one each of the Trinamool Congress, Sikkim Democratic Front and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

In the best possible scenario, provided the Congress-RLD combine makes it well past the three-digit figure in Uttar Pradesh and the Congress wins in Uttarakhand too, the UPA’s total strength in the Rajya Sabha would go up by just a couple of MPs. However, the prospects of even this may not bring cheer in the ruling camp as it comes after taking into account the increase in the strength of the Trinamool Congress from West Bengal. It’s the Trinamool that had proved to be a spoiler for the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill.

On the other hand, going by the existing strength of the respective Assemblies, the UPA’s tally would come down by one seat if UP and Uttarakhand do not see a change in its fortunes and the Congress is not able to muster up requisite numbers from other parties to retain its seat from Jharkhand (where two vacancies are coming up).

From Uttar Pradesh, there will be 10 vacancies, and the retiring members include five of the BSP, two each of the BJP and SP, and one of the RLD. If the Congress-RLD combine crosses the three-digit figure, the two parties can hope to win three of these 10 seats. If the Congress wins in Uttarakhand, it may retain the one Rajya Sabha seat falling vacant from the state.

Five Rajya Sabha MPs from West Bengal, including four of the Left and one of the Trinamool, would retire on April 2. Given the numerical equations in the present Assembly, the TMC would gain two more seats to increase its overall tally in the Rajya Sabha from six to eight, while the Congress and Left are likely to get one seat each.

Besides, six vacancies are coming up from Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra; five from Madhya Pradesh; four each from Gujarat and Karnataka; three each from Orissa and Rajasthan; and one each from Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. Of these, the Congress is going to gain one seat from Madhya Pradesh, while it will lose in Himachal Pradesh.

Between the current round of biennial election expected in March and the next round two years later, there will be a dozen more vacancies in Rajya Sabha (including one from the nominated category) — three in Kerala, two in Assam and six in Tamil Nadu. Out of the three seats in Kerala, the Congress currently holds one and can hope for one more. The retiring MPs from Assam will be Manmohan Singh and Deepak Kumar Das (AGP); the Congress can hope to secure the second seat as well.

The possible gain of these two seats may, however, be neutralised by the loss of seats in Tamil Nadu. Out of the six vacancies that will arise in 2013 from the state, two are held by the DMK and one by the Congress. With its brutal majority in the Assembly, the AIADMK can count on a clean sweep with the help of the DMDK.