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Basing their conclusion on night-time satellite images and other techniques, a research team led by geographer Thomas Gillespie suggest that the 52-year-old fugitive may well be in one of three compounds in Parachinar, a town 12 miles inside the Pakistan border, ‘USA Today’ reported.
Gillespie of the University of California-Los Angeles and his team used geographic analytical tools that have been successful in locating urban criminals and endangered species.
The research incorporates public reports of bin Laden's habits and whereabouts since his flight from the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan in 2001.
The results, reported in the 'MIT International Review,' are being greeted with polite but skeptical interest among people involved in the global hunt for bin Laden, the al-Qaeda mastermind behind 9/11 attacks on the US, the report said.
Bin Laden's whereabouts are considered ‘one of the most important political questions of our time’, the study notes.
"I've never really believed the sitting-in-a-cave theory. That's the last place you would want to be bottled up," Gillespie says.
The study's real value, he says, is in combining satellite records of geographic locations, patterns of night-time electricity use and population-detection methods to produce a technique for locating fugitives.
Essentially, the study generates hiding-place location probabilities. It starts with ‘distance decay theory’, which holds that the odds are greater that the person will be found close to where he or she was last seen, the report said.
Then the researchers add the ‘island biographic theory’, which maintains that locales with more resources palm trees for tropical birds and electricity for wealthy fugitives are likelier to draw creatures of interest.
"Island biographic theory suggests bin Laden would end up in the biggest and least isolated city of the region," Gillespie says, one among about 26 towns within a 20-mile distance of Tora Bora.
"To really improve the model, you would need to include intelligence data from 2001 to 2006," Gillespie says.
"It has been eight years. Honestly, I think it is time to be more open. This is a very important issue for the public."
The study also makes assumptions that bin Laden might need medical treatment, requiring electricity in an urban setting.
The study also assumes that bin Laden is being protected by a few bodyguards and he might be living in isolation that requires a walled compound.
It also takes into account that his hiding place should have tree cover to shield outdoor activities from aircraft.
"Of course, it all depends on the accuracy of the information on most recent whereabouts," Gillespie says. "I assume that the military has more recent information that would change the hiding place probabilities."
"It's important to think outside the box, and this is an innovative idea worth more pursuit," says geographic-profiling expert Kim Rossmo of Texas State University in San Marcos, who has worked with the military on adapting police procedures for finding criminals to counter-terrorism.
However, the authors are much too certain of their conclusions.
"The idea of identifying three buildings in a city of half a million especially one in a country the authors have likely never visited is somewhat overconfident."
The study grew out of an undergraduate seminar on applying geographic profiling to real-world problems.
"We are all wondering where bin Laden is hiding," Gillespie says, and adds: "We just wanted to offer the techniques we have to help."
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People in India say "DAIR AAE DARUST AAE"(Late came but came well and healthy)but USAmerican politicians have lost some where from where they will never back.their political GPS didn't work,doesn't work and will never work.Most of the world,even a man of the street knows/knew that Osama-bin-Laden was and is under Pakistani protection.May it be ISI or Army but certainly Musharraf the Dictator and this so to say Govt are fully aware and using Osama to exploit every possible source of blackmailing the US/West and milk out maximum money/aid.USAmerican need special study to establish this fact is a ridiculously shame to intelect and common sense.A real pressure on Pak Govt with absolute end of every sort of aid and sanctions will bring Osama and all terrorists'leaders.A month of encircling Pak and make sure nothing goes out and nothing comes in will expedite to resolve whole problem in that region.Why Osama should hide among people or the areas which are constantly under NATO attacks?
Osama might be under the shelters of Pakisthan Army.
Bin Laden and other Al-Queda leaders are living in the Military cantonment of Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi. He is hidden in a room next to Maj-Gen Kayani's office, with constant watch. The leaders are free to plan the next move. But when any of the smaller leaders does not listen then he is selected for special treatment and taken away to the border with Afghanistan and is either captured or wiped out.Same thig happens when pakistan has to satisfy USA when an AID program is to be sanctioned.
DAWOOD IBRAHIM, OSAMA BIN LADEN AND ALL THE TERRORISTS ARE IN PAKISTAN SOIL UNDER THE CARE OF THE I.S.I AND ARMY THERE IS NO DOUBT IN IT.
Dinesh,You took the words out of my mouth. Ask Musharaf or the current of Army or ISI. They will tell you precisely where Bin Laden is. Pakistan Army and ISI protect Islamists, Taliban and Alqueda. It brought them billions of dollars into their coffers. The moment Islamism is dead, Pakistan Army and their posh elite living is finished. They very well knew this. We can't get any more scientific proof than this. What is this MIT scientist is trying to prove?
Let world know that Osama has died long time back world is full to bileive is alive there is no proof he is alive
No better then other, only Mr. Mushraff would know where Osama is hiding. Osama's Golden Era was in peak when Mushraff was in power. I believe post 9/11, when the Nato troops was getting ready to attack Taliban
Bush asked his friend Bin laden to stay in Paksitan as his guest. American government is a terrorist government, in which Bin Laden is an employee. Americans are bloody brainless BigMac heads.
I hope Osama doesnt read Indian Express or TOI, or Washington Post for that matter, cause by he might have already left. ha ha ha ha
Most Likely ? Thats a joke ! He was always there - courtesy Pakistan, Saudi arabia and U.A.E. , the only 3 countries in the whole wide world to recognise the Taliban.And also courtesy Pakistan hospitals giving him dialysis.
There is a concensus that America has been fooled by alll Asians in general, Pakistan in particular. Pakis are the most theatrical people on the planet. They are not too smart but they are conniving and crafty. No brains to produce the Nuke, they stole it. Pakistan, in itself is Mafia. I am not an Obama supporter because he is as tricky and smooth talker as (most) immigrants can be. He says what they want to hear and he has fooled the entire white USA. Its OK with me because at least he knows all the immigrants trickery and he would be able to foil the bluffs of Pakistan, Iran, Koreas, Vietnams, China and most of the countries from Middle East(also Asia) like Saudis (who masterminded 9/11, Lebonan, Syria, Egypt etc. Obama will be able to bring America to the same power and prosperity that America really desrves. Of course Osama, like Dawood Ibrahim, is in Pakistan under ISI protection. Offer $ 1billion to Pakistan Osama is yours. Big price for big catch. Satya Vachon sumeet9333..
No 'most likely'. He is very much in Pakistan as STATE GUEST! Along with several other most wanted terrorists, including Dawood Ibrahim. However, Pakistan is able to fool the entire world, and get financial grants to support the terrorists.
There is no doubts that Osama is still pakistan. There are many Osamas in Pakistan. Our very own Dawood Ibrahim is enjoying life in Pakistan. America has stillnot learnt from their mistakes. american should attack/bombard pakistan try to solve the world terrorism.
Any one on planet earth will confirm that this despot is living in Pakistan, protected and gurded by well here is where people have to decide just how much Pakistan Government and ISI are involved