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Nevertheless, with tension high and fiery rhetoric coming from various quarters on both sides, conflict between the neighbours who have fought three wars since 1947 cannot be ruled out. Here is a look at some possible scenarios for Pakistan in the event of war:
Political
- War would bring a wave of patriotism and national unity, analysts say. However, the authority of the civilian government that came to power this year after nine years of military rule, and had been trying to improve ties with India, would be undermined as the military would take charge of key decision-making.
- At the end of a war, assuming the country has not been flattened by Indian nuclear strikes, the government would be under huge pressure to deal with the economic consequences.
- Efforts to establish stable and sustainable civilian rule could be set back by years.
- India could try to stir up trouble in regions such as the energy-rich province of Baluchistan, where Pakistan says India has been meddling for years in support of separatist rebels fighting a low-key insurgency.
- Similarly, Afghans, perhaps egged on by close ally India, could revive calls for a greater "Pashtunistan" (Afghanistan has never recognised the border with Pakistan, imposed by British colonialists in the 19th century, which divided ethnic Pashtuns).
- Such developments in Baluchistan and the Pashtun-dominated northwest would revive deep-seated Pakistani fears of the break-up of their country.
Security
- The Pakistani military would effectively give up its part in the US-led war on terrorism, analysts say, as it pulls troops off the western border with Afghanistan, where they have been battling militants, and deploys them on the eastern border with India.
- Pakistani Taliban militants have already said they would rally to help the Pakistani military in the event of war against India.
- Pakistani efforts to rein in militant groups fighting Indian rule in the disputed Kashmir region would likely be reversed and the groups would be given a green light, or official support, to raise funds, recruit fighters and infiltrate India.
- Public sympathy and support for militant groups would soar as they would be seen as national defenders against the "real enemy", India.
- That would be the death knell for government attempts to convince a sceptical public that militancy has to be rooted out, and efforts to tackle it are for the good of the country and not just doing America's bidding.
Economy
- The economy was rescued from the brink by a $7.6 billion IMF loan agreed last month. The benchmarks and reforms involved in the IMF package, as well as lower fuel and food prices, have offered a glimmer of hope of recovery in 2009/10 but war would dash that hope and the slowdown would be prolonged.
- Several economic analysts said war was highly unlikely but even greater fear of war would lead to a flight of capital as both Pakistani and foreign investors get their money out of the country.
- There would be no hope of attracting much-needed foreign investment which is required to bridge a current account deficit.
- The Indian navy would most likely try to block Pakistan's main port at Karachi to choke off imports including fuel, though that would also disrupt supplies bound for US forces in Afghanistan.
- Analysts said they doubted authorities would freeze foreign currency accounts, as they did in 1998 after Pakistan conducted nuclear tests, in the absence of full-scale war because the country's reserve position as well as external account situation was improving with the IMF programme. However, that could not be ruled out if war broke out.
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As per Mr. Parthsathy, USA has already looking for alternative routes from Uzbeckistan, as Taliban has been attacking their supplies. One more way ofputting pressure on Pakistan is to to stop the flow of rivers originating from India. This will have a major impact on their agriculture.
Dont forget pakistan is not afghanistan and india is not USA. What india will do go and concar pakistan and they will watch every thing. Dont forget no one wants war. It is not good for indian economy. Both sates are nuclear.
Dear Paki commentators, the worst case scenario will emerge somewhat like this. In the event of a Nuclear war India will lose 120 million of it's people, thats 10% of India..Pakistan in turn will loose 120 million. Thats 85%. Due to the sheer geographical size of India probably 50% of India will suffer from the Nuclear fall out but Pakistan will simply cease to exist. Scary for India but a complete Hara Kiri for Pakistan. Hope you get sleepless nights after reading this. More importantly, this argument is in English. Hope you Madrasa educated scum are able to comprehend what was communicated.
How do you say 90% of Indians will survive in the event of nuclear war. When it is sufficient for India to use one nuclear bomb on Pakistan, assuming the vastness of Indian territory, how do you expect Pakistan may not use two bombs to cover the entire India? Don't think you are very clever and Pakistanis are fools. When it is war and when nuclear bombs are used, it is sure both Nations will perish. You should only wish there should be no war and not compare the capability of each country which comman men like you and me may not know.
My dear friend,If pak drops one bomb(Nuclea r) on India, India will lost only 35% according to geographical survey.How do you expect India to keep quit after Pakistan attacks it. India will suddenly hit back Pakistan with Nuclear weapon which demolish entire Pakistan. so there is no chance of Pakistan using two bombs after being attacked By India.Could there be anybody left in Pakistan after receiving Nuclear attack?
While it is noway good for both the countries. But, I would like to enlighten my Pakistani friends that a while pakistan can use 4 bombs but does not have tactical capabilities to reach out entire length of India. Even in the event of 1st strike pakistan will not be able to survive the nuclear retaliation that India will lease out. Regarding China - I guess you already must have learnt a lesson from past wars as what china can do for you. So better be off than start and repent.
The bigger you are the harder you fall.India to lose a lot more. Pak will have to flatten India for many reasons. Pakistanis know how survive in hardship. Watch out for China too. Pak have friends, India dont. Don't act like India is superpower.USA (long live) is super for it really is a responsible country. India is no where near it.All Pakistanis know how to fight. It's not a game. Hope there is no war. India should not act like true terrorists.
We need to squeeze /bleedPakistan economically and diplomatically. W need to double our defense outlay particularly in effective weapons systems like fighters,long range artillary, tanks and naval offensive weapons
Both countries cannot afford a war. The best solution is for India and Pakistan to join hands, have joint science and technology programmes and education programs. Pakistan must insist on modern education for its youth by using India's infrastructure. The west is trying its best to weaken Asia. Better Pakistan-India relations is always prevented by them.
My apologies for being forced to disagree - images of the terror strike in Mumbai are still fresh in my mind and today there is no way we can justify joining hands with Pakistan. The general behavior of Pakistan makes one believe that a Pakistan-China-West Asia axis is targeting India
Why Pakistan is bent on war with India,Pakistan likes Bloodshed,almost 90% of Government and Military Organiaztion of Pakistan are War Fanatics,India is the most Responsible Country,she always takes Decision wisely and fairly Judged,but one Most funny thing here happening ie Pakistan Terrorist Attacked Indian State and now they(Pakistanis) want War with India,what Justice is this,If Pakistan is very much Interested and bent on War with India,We as Indian fully Support Indian Government to be Vegilent Against these Foriegn evil Elements and Give Fitting Reply to Pakistanis,If they want War,they(Pakistanis) will be Dealed with same Tune,Here We are not Sending Terrorist to Pakistan and then Covering the whole matter under Bright Sun,It Is Pakistan which is doing all thus Evil and Unhuman Crimes against Humanity,i really Think that Pakistanis are really taking us for granted and acting Crazy,1.2 Billion Indians souls will unite to fight this ruthless and Terrorist like Trained Pak army
Pak nation run by idiots and war hawkish ISI. They say the barking dog never bite . And that what Pak is all about. They have created enough terror in India and now is the time for India to show Pak its might. Partial stoppage of water from the high up has already created problem for Pakis and when completely stopped and bombed bankrupt Pakistan will have no one to cry on. Pak has tried for long to disintegrate India and now it is India time to show how Pak can be split into four parts. A right lesson for foul mouthed Pakis.Jai Hind.
Our country was forced to fight three wars with Pakistan. Although we won all the wars,but the war of 1971 was the only decisive massive victory. It is pity we did not play our diplomatic cards well at that time and settled for a temporary peace despite holding more than 90.000 Pakistani POWs. So war is no solution to any problem. We must smartly defeat Pakistan on the diplomatic and economic fronts. There have been no visible results of CBMs and people to people contacts designed as a way out for bringing in peace between two countries. The Parliament attack as well as the Mumbai attacks had been the defining response of our neighbour to such measures. We should concentrate only on the measures which are required for just a normal relationship with our neighbour. If Pakistan can bleed us through thousand cuts through a well calibrated proxy war, we should answer by carrying out some stringent economic policies and be less hyped about friendship with our neighbour.
There will be no pakistan left to cry after the war. It will be wiped off
I wish you Banya could do that. It has never happened in the recorded history that you bloody Indians attacked and captured any other country. Wake up
No Bloody Pakistanis have ever achieved to won war on any countries..You had lost all three wars with us.. Ja Hind
Neither did Pakistan fought a war and capture any other country. Forget not that you are a result of India separation.
Pakistan has forex of less than 10 Billiion USD in its reserve and a real inflation rate of 38%. With that kind of finances they can only talk big. If they withdraw troops from their western sector, that area will be infested by the talibans. The talibans , on their part have only acted locally and are in no way equipped for a full scale war. that will be the end of Pakistan. Nuclear war will destroy entire South Asia.
INDIA WILL CRY AFTER THE WAR!!FOOLISH DECISION IS ALWAYS TAKEN BY FOOLISH NATIONS
Dr. Farooq that is what a intelligent nation like India would expect a fool from a foolish nation say. Remember what goes around comes around, Pakistan keeps forgetting this and India has to keep reminding it.
India will no longer on world map if india fight with Pakistan. Ghouri and Shaeen will distroy india head to toe.Remember ........
Do you know what foolishness means? To hate others is foolish.To kill others and call it jihad is foolish.To act disfunctional after calling yourself a doctor is foolish.To act like a coward and blow innocent people up is foolishness.To be called a terrorist country is foolish.I bet you must be taking care of only male patients doc.India does not need to war with Pakistan.If every Indian pees Pakistan will be flooded.We have more muslims then you do doc.
good reply Asma.Allah never said to kill innocent humans. which the pakistan is doing with the help of terrorist. Pakistan is really wasting their energy and money with all these terrorist activities. and they are not improvig their economy and no letting others also grow. Really stupid and idiot people are flooded there.They never think. and they never admit their mistakes
well said Munna, No religion has ever said to kill innocent and common people in the name of jihad.Oh, the people of Pakistan. It's time for you to learn the lesson.Don't forget the Almighty is watching over you and your foolish bloody terrorists .Soon the entire World will declare Pakistan a terrorist country..What a pity?
In the world Map ,there will be no Pakistan in the map if they will fight against INDIA.already Pakistan is a Beggers Country
Its True.Pakistan is a beggers Country.after the war with India,defenitly pakistan will be fully Demolished.
War is not a solution but more problems in disguise. Innocent life are at stake .Its time that Pakistan should understand that by supporting terrorist they are digging their own grave.Education,health,democracy and stable economy are of more serious concern for Pakistan. After 61 years of independence Indian economy is way beyond that of Pakistan’s. Pakistan is oblivious to the fact that they have the potential of being a strong enconomy, its large middle class society can free Pakistan from the clutches of poverty and terrorism, and only if they can educate them .Pakistan should concentrate on education and health care. A literate nation equals strong and stable economy, which will eradicate poverty and terrosrism.By killing innocent people is not the solution, and when people in Pakistan are deprived of fundamental rights it is foolish to wage a war. Use your nuclear reactor to generate electricity, be constructive and not distructive.India is always ready for contructive challenge
War is really very dangerous thing and we can afford the war but what is the future. The example is in front of our eyes i.e. the problems facing by the USA. so forget about war and select another way for solution.
Hmmn quite interesting article, hope pakistani heads get some wisdon to read this and stop their immature and stupid comments.
Does economy really matter for die hard Islamic fanactics who are hell bent on pursuing their agenda and are funded by the various nations and with slush money. Occurence of war would infact help the debt ridden Western economy as it would help them to revitalise their economy by selling all their produces in post war Pakistan. These western countries never took cognizance of Indias plea when they were arming Pakistan all these years with the latest weapons. The Western world would be making the usual noises after the war and later the business with Pak will flourish. To expect anything else from the western world would be foolish and idiotic unless they are facing another 9/11.
Pakistan is BANKRUPT!! It is a FAILED STATE!! If Pak dares to attack India,
It is stupid to assume we can afford and I dare say even win, should a war happen. Let's get our own house in order first. There are enough wars that are happening internally that need to be managed first.
this analysis not applicable to pakistan as it is not a normal country.
Pakistan may sustain prolonged war...They can eat grass and buy bombs to attack us.-:)
Papistan is obsessed with only one thing - hatred for India; at the same time envy for all that is Indian ! These 2 things mismatch though. Whether Papi can afford or not is not ours to bother, but deliver a crushing blow to them whenever it is needed, the ripe time is now.How many opportunities this Congress is going to let go till we ourselves are pushed over the cliff?
really?
Please remember "1971". India annihilate 93 thousand Pak. troops and they became "Prisoner of War". Pak was begging for their release and Shimla Pact paved the way.Tell all you AAQAA. You all will be FAQIR one day.
mr shut up listen it will reversiblePakistan will annihilate whole india
Its a matter of timePak will crumbleas no nation will give loans to buy bread.Indian economyis strong and pakisare so fixed not within, instead ofjealous of changesand development ofindia.
Are you an indian or a paki ? Mr.Z has to beg for Intlbanks for 7 billionloan to buy food andoil as state becamebankrupt, and all time they are cryingfor loans from us,china or anywhere.A war will (maybe saudi or some arabsmay help) make pakinto full bankruptwith empty sekltoncoffers. Bashing ofothers are not theanswer, make intro-spection, with islamstarted, will end with it.
if pakistan is such a weak country than why you people are panic.pakistan are really in its interior troubles but when i see your news papers and media really i couldn't control my laugh,that the global power the emerging Indian is trembling and shaking.like just see the comments above why you people are so afraid of Pakistan and some are about to weep here.
Very soon India will emerge as No 1 in Asian countries as far as economical strategic is country.hahaha. Think about ur country.May allah save u
Dont be under the impression that any one here is panicking. Indians are warning. Indians are patient, Indians warn and finally when the patience is lost believe me, world will have to re-do the map and PAK will not be there.