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The fear, among the generals, who have ruled Pakistan for majority of years after independence is also that Zardari with his enhanced powers of presidency might appoint generals of his choice, when the Army's present top hierarchy comes up for retirement in October next year, according to a leading US intelligence think tank.
The Pakistan military, the think tank Stratfor said sees the alignment of the Obama Administration with Zardari as further undermining its position at a time when its power within the country already has weakened because of the rise of civilian forces and a raging Taliban insurgency.
Noting that both this domestic situation and pressure from Washington have placed considerable limits on the ability of the military to dislodge civilian government, Stratfor said the military was now using its influence to help align forces against the president, to force him out of office with a veneer of legality.
"The goal is thus not to unseat the current
government, but to get rid of Zardari in such a way that looks like the byproduct of a constitutional process rather than of a coup -- a return to the times when the military dismissed four different governments between 1985 and 1999," Stratfor said.
Riling up the opposition against the controversial National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) is thus a means of forcing Zardari into a corner, it said. Stratfor said the Obama administration feels that unless the army is brought under civilian control, Washington cannot deal with the region's Taliban problem.
This is because the Pakistani security establishment draws a distinction between "good" Taliban that fight in Afghanistan and "bad" Taliban that wage war in Pakistan, it argued.
Also what has antagonised the Army is the aid package for Pakistan recently signed into law recently, which calls for civilian supremacy over the military in Pakistan, and represents a bid by Washington to work with the Zardari government to rein in the Pakistani military. Stratfor said the Pakistani military as an institution has remained deeply opposed to Zardari, though it has continued to work with him.
"This is due to the fact that the army and the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate feel no good alternative to Zardari exists capable of leading Pakistan. PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif is seen as unreliable given his past struggles with the army and his recent moves to emerge as the torchbearer for democracy," it said.
Noting that one key power of the enhanced presidency is the ability to appoint high-level army officials, the think-tank said this power will come into play when current army chief General Ashfaq Kayani retires in October 2010.
Pakistan's other four-star general, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen Tariq Majid, is due to retire at the same time, and current ISI chief Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha could retire as early as March 2010.
"The Zardari government would like to use this opportunity to appoint generals of its own choice to these top military and intelligence posts, something the armed forces deem extremely unacceptable.
The military thus would like to see Zardari's departure from office before that can happen," Stratfor said.
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From India's perspective, Zardari is a weak
Yes,that's absolutely true that the Generals are trying their best to unseat not only the President Zardari but the Civilian government as well.They might be thinking that if Musharraf the Ex Army Chief could do that and get away with that Why not the present Army Chief along with the present ISI Chief.Can the Army and the Nuclear Arsenal be brought under the Civilian government.? NO WAY.Remember Benazir Bhutto the then Prime Minister was refused the nuclear facility tour by the Mighty Army of Pakistan.Presently too the Army has the final say.The Civilian government is there for the name sake.VERY FRAGILE -- can crumble any time.Is it MOCKERY OF DEMOCRACY.??? Terrorism is likely to flourish till the Army yields.And the Army will not as that is a matter of survival for them.
Democracy has failed in Pakistan because all of the elected governments have been so corrupt that they would sell out national interests to foreign interests. That is why we have Blackwater and US marines infiltrating Pakistan, because according to my discussion with an intelligence person, the zardari govt has told the interior ministry to not do any checks on arms and explsoives being imported by US embassy into pakistan. That is why pakistan is experiencing a wave of terrorism after blackwater's entry in pakistan this summer. The reason the army is opposing the current govt is because it knows that govt is trying to remove anti-USA officers in the army with pro-USA traitors. Had it been another country, Zardari would have been arrested for treason and sentenced. But Zardari is being protected by USA because he is serving American interests in pakistan. But this will not last because the public itself wants to get rid of Zardari like they showed in the long march in early 2009.
Obviously, the Paki generals are looking for a clean person for President to improve Pak's image in the world. At present, the Pak image stinks.
The coup will come much sooner then you expected.The I.S.I and its jahadies goons are already ploting and scheming as how to get rid of people elected goverment.These generals of Pakistan are having sleepless nights and nightmare of loosing there grip on the, "LOOT," which they have accumulated and build mansions at the cost of poor Pakistani public.Mia Mushraff, the last dictator of Pakistan has invested in posh houses and apartment in U.S.A, Londoan and Dubai.
we will get rid of Mr Zadari soon if they will try to avoid (unlaw act )voice of the people of pakistan , amendment made by dictator ( Musharaf ) has been followed by Mr Zadari , so no one accept now a days in pakistan to follow dictators laws,.... also we now have a democratic govt which will not be derailed by army or any one, as we are stand with our democratic forces ,,, not ... now there would be no chance or hope for army takeover in paksitan or any army frendly government , after the revolution of cheif justice re-oppointment. only rule of law will be followed in paksitan after this judicairy ......
In pakistan a war between troops and terrorists are going on in one place, between shias and sunnis in another place; between constitutional govt. and the military on another front; between punjabis and pathans another side - which is really genuine? Will that country remain to see who is actually winning at the end? Pakistani people must understand that Democracy is the only solution for peace and progress where religious fanaticism must die for ever. Unless pakistan eliminates the terrorists living in their punjab province and occupied kashmir, never there will be peace in the soil of pakistan.
Yes, if Pakistan want to see itself as a democracy that would bring down the terrorism from its soil, the only chance is to get the army and the ISI under the civilian elected govt. Unlike the previous dictactors, who forced the entire country to such a mess, where its own citizens are dared stepping out of their homes, need to be changed. Otherwise, what is the difference between the dictectorship and democracy? The Army should be accountable to the democratically elected govt, that is the ony reason why the pakistan people elected a democratic govt. Had there been no Zia-Ul-Huq and Musharaff, Pakistan wont be witnessing the mess they are in today. And who is the sufferers? The very common man, Musharaff had fled to safe heavens.. and as per some Pakistan media, during his tenure out of the total aid provided by the US, 3 billion USD is missing. Where does it go? Musharaff would be claiming that he is purely living on the money he getting by preaching speaches to the entire world an
But even if a coup were to take place, it will be blessed in the US (may be China too!). I would not lose my sleep over the issue.