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The states are already opposed to the Centre’s calculations on poverty estimation. In an interim finding, former chief of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council Suresh Tendulkar has estimated that 38 per cent of India’s population (comprising 8.32 crore families) is poor.
The Planning Commission in 2004-05 had said that 28.5 per cent of the country’s population was poor. The estimate was based on a National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) survey’s finding which said an income of Rs 560 per month for urban families was enough to purchase 2,100 calories of nutrition and an income of Rs 368 per month was enough to purchase 2,400 calories of nutrition in rural areas. However, different government bodies disputed the plan panel’s estimate. In 2007, the Arjun Sengupta committee had said that 77 per cent of India’s population was living below the poverty line, earning less than Rs 20 per day.
In June 2009, a rural development ministry-sponsored committee headed by N C Saxena to fix criteria for the Below Poverty Line survey in India had estimated that 50 per cent of Indians were poor. The Saxena Committee’s estimate matched the number of BPL ration cards issued so far — 10.86 crore households. As per the estimate, 10.87 crore households will have to be issued cards as per the new estimation, starting January 2010.
In the backdrop of the findings of these committees and the UPA government’s pledge to give a legal guarantee of food for everyone, Tendulkar was asked to determine the number of poor in India based on the new nutritional realities of the country. Abhijit Sen, the commission member in-charge of food, had advocated that the new estimation methodology be based on income. In line with the changing poverty estimates, the figures for annual subsidy requirement too changed. According to official estimates, 10.86 crore families currently hold BPL cards with each family drawing 25-kg foodgrains per month entailing a subsidy of about Rs 28,890.56 crore. If the Saxena Committee’s findings were factored in, then nearly 10.87 crore families would mean a government subsidy of nearly Rs 36,812.62 crore. And now with Tendulkar pegging BPL families at 8.32 crore, the subsidy bill would be nearly Rs 47,917.22 crore. The Planning Commission has estimated the number of persons below the poverty line at 36 per cent in 1993-94, which declined to 27. 5 per cent in 2004-05. The panel reasons that state-wise there were large variations and if the 2009 population estimates were accepted the total number of poor families would come down to 5.91 crore. This is where the states have a problem and they have already made representations for the acceptance of the increased number of BPL families.
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Back in 1942, President US Franklin Rosevelt started the WPA program to relieve Americans from the greatdepression. Huge amounts were invested in the construction of roads, Dams, Airports, High schools and playgrounds and beautification projects. The secret to eliminating poverty in the western world is to maintain economic parity. Money in the western world circulates within all classes. If you visit any western country -- 100% percent of habitable space is either paved with cement concrete, grass, roads or cob stones maintained by automated machines and water sprinklers between the hours of 10pm to 3am. Since the cost of labor and machinery is very high along with maintainence the money invested is well circulated with the lower labor classes. Another advantage is in areas of high tourism which brings in huge amounts of foriegn exchange and improves the economy of the region. Countries like France, USA and China get a foriegn exchange in the range of trillions of dollars over the past decade. What India should do is invest heavily in the high tourism regions beautification projects, paving of roads upto western standards so money in the economy is well circulating with advantages of a cleaner environment, revenues from tourism and erradication of poverty by providing jobs for the unemployed. The difference between India and the western world is the skipping of industralization and jumping into the information age. Hence the model of investing is slightly different. Nikhil
Sir, I was born in a village in Haryana in 1946. I started taking interest in attending seminars on poverty at the age of 21. My object of attending seminars and talks on poverty was limited - to know exactly who was poor in my village and to ascertain the total number of poor in my village. I was a silent listener. I had the privilege of listening to eminent economists - Prof Raj Krishna, Prof. A.M. Khusro to Dr. Amartya Sen and other present day noted economists. All took pride in giving his own estimate on the number of people living below poverty line. One will not believe that even today I have not been able to get a proper definition of "who is poor? in my village". It is shocking that none has any idea "how poverty can be removed?". Our non Government economists take pride in criticising the Government for not removing poverty. All ex and would-be FMs say "we need new ideas to fight poverty". So what is this debate?SC Aggarwal,Founder, Poverty Trust, N.Delhi 76