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‘Priority is to control inflation. If we’ve to sacrifice a bit of growth, so be it’

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P. Vaidyanathan Iyer

Posted: Jul 26, 2008 at 0201 hrs IST

What is your assessment of the economy with inflation at a 13-year high of 12 per cent and a slowdown in industrial output?

We should not rush to any conclusion based on a week’s data or a month’s data. This is a difficult year. Nevertheless, I expect agriculture and the services sector to do well and industry to moderate to a level which should not cause us too much distress. Overall, therefore, growth will still be robust. If you look at the latest CMIE estimate, the growth this year is expected to be 9.5 per cent. Therefore, going forward, I think 2008-09 will also be a good year in terms of overall growth. However, it will be a year when growth will be accompanied by inflation. The effort is to moderate inflation from now over the next six months.

What is a realistic estimate of inflation tapering off? Do you expect inflation to come down to acceptable levels over the next six months?

This will depend upon international crude oil and commodity prices. We are fortunately insulated to some extent against food prices. In fact, in terms of food price inflation, we are among the lowest in the world over a 12-month period. But we are victims of crude oil and commodity price inflation. Depending upon how these prices behave, we can hope for either an early return to the normal path or a delayed return to the normal path. But we will return to the normal path. It is difficult to put a timeframe, unless you tell me how crude oil or commodity prices will behave in the coming months.

But, what about growth? What are your expectations?

I am confident growth will be between 8 per cent and 8.5 per cent.

Will you be able to push through economic reforms given the time available with the UPA government?

It depends on how much support we are able to garner. It depends on the support we have inside Parliament and outside. The economic agenda we talked about in the last five Budget speeches remains the same, and intact. I intend to reach out to every section in Parliament and seek their support on the economic agenda.

Will you be willing to talk to the Bharatiya Janata Party and seek its support?

Here is a statement by Mr Yashwant Sinha. “If the Prime Minister approaches the Opposition leader with a specific proposal, we will examine it.” I welcome that statement. The standing committee on finance was chaired by a BJP member, Maj Gen BC Khanduri. Today, it is again chaired by another BJP member, Mr Anantha Kumar. But there are other parties too that are broadly supportive of reforms. We will reach out to all sections, all parties in Parliament and seek their support.

There is some sense of euphoria about reforms in the financial sector? But, it clearly isn’t as easy as is being made out, isn’t it?

The point is, those Bills were introduced in the House in the hope that they will be passed. Two Bills (one to amend the Banking Regulation Act and another on pension reforms) are actually pending in the House after having been reported favourably by the standing committee. Other Bills are in the pipeline. Therefore, having introduced or drawn up the Bills with the intention of passing them, at this stage as finance minister I can only say one thing: I still intend to press with the Bills. We are not introducing any new Bills. We are only talking about legislations in the pipeline and two of them are in the final stage.

The finance ministry has often said that monetary policy is the first line of defence while controlling inflation. Will it not affect interest rates?

Interest rates, as an instrument to moderate inflation, are available to the central banks the world over. How the central bank uses policy rates is for it to decide.

But you also want banks to ensure adequate credit to the industry?

Even the RBI makes it clear that it is not the RBI’s intention to deny adequate credit to the productive sector. Everytime we have met banks what we have said is do not deny adequate credit to the productive sectors. That doesn’t mean... the media interprets it differently. Go back to the words we use. Who can take exception to such a statement of sentiment?

If interest rates go up, will it not affect economic growth? Do you see a trade-off between inflation and growth?

There is, obviously. We all know that. The industry chambers know that. There is high inflation and if policy rates are to be adjusted for that, it will impact growth. What we are trying to do is balance it to the extent possible. But I have already said, inflation control is top priority. So, for that purpose, if we have to sacrifice a bit of growth, so be it.

Interestingly, in your Lok Sabha intervention on the Motion of Confidence, you singled out China? Why China?

In my view, the only country comparable to China is India. I talked about China since its civil nuclear power situation is more or less the same as India’s. From figures that were given to me, civil nuclear power constitutes 2 per cent of the total installed power capacity in China. In India, it constitutes 3 per cent of the total capacity. In a sense, India and China are in the same boat. Now, how is China looking forward in the area of civil nuclear cooperation? There, I have gathered material about the number of reactors that are in place, the number that are being built and the number that are being contemplated. And I intended to say that is the right path to take. Build more reactors and expand civil nuclear capacity. That is why I referred to China. It has got nothing to do with the Left. In fact, when I refer to China, why should the Left take umbrage, I can’t understand? It is one among 150 countries in the world.

Investment in the infrastructure sector, especially roads, seems to have been stalled.

I don’t think anything has been stalled. If there is a slowdown, the question must be put to that minister.

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