The satta market has not always been a good predictor, though. In the last election, it had given the SAD 70 to 75 seats, way over the 48 it won before it formed the government with the BJP’s 19. And for the Congress, which ended up with 44, the market had predicted only 30 to 35.

This time, the odds have been reversed. As per the betting rates immediately following the final withdrawal of candidates, the return on every rupee placed on the Akali Dal was 70p (anyone betting Rs 1 lakh would get back Rs 1.70 lakh if the Akalis do win). The Congress was way ahead at 30p. The more likely a victory, the lower the assured return.

In terms of seats, trends indicate the Congress will lead the SAD-BJP 61-54, just about enough to take the 117-seat Assembly. The market gives a breakup of 47 to the SAD and seven to the BJP. That will leave only two seats for various other parties, including Manpreet Singh Badal’s People’s Party of Punjab. In fact, Manpreet himself is tipped to lose both seats he is contesting from —Maur and Gidderbaha.

“The main betting has been on the traditional rivals, Congress and SAD. The PPP is a new party and we think it has no winning candidate. It may at best act as a spoiler, might get one seat,’’ said one bookie.

In personal faceoffs, the market favours Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal against his brother Gurdas and cousin Maheshinder in Lambi. The odds on the CM winning and losing are, however, intriguingly close — 25p and 28p respectively against every rupee.

Bets are being placed from across Punjab and the total has already crossed Rs 2,500 crore, the highest ever for any Assembly election in the state.

State Congress chief Amarinder Singh is tipped to win easily in Patiala, as is Akali Dal president Sukhbir Singh Badal from his seat, Jalalabad.

Last time, bookies had offered to pay back up to 20 times the bets on Amarinder Singh. They had been far more cautious about Parkash Singh Badal, refraining from even double-your-money offers.