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'Sensex to hit 14,500, rush to 19,000'

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Agencies

Posted: Jan 02, 2012 at 1334 hrs IST

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA) sees India's benchmark index the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex falling to 14,500 in the first half (H1) of 2012 and recovering to 19,000 by the year-end.

It advises investors to buy Indian equities below 15,000 and sell above 18,000.

The likely fall in equities is because of a variety of reasons, including falling growth, worsening domestic macro fundamentals, deteriorating earnings profile and slowing global economy.

Nonetheless, we see the likely fall in equity prices as a 'big' trading opportunity, it said. The recovery in the second half would be triggered by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate cuts and the government taking decisions to kick-start investment spend.

The research house expects earnings per share of Sensex to be downgraded to 1,200 from 1,275 mainly due to falling sales and rising costs.

The bank is positive on defensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals and staples, despite expensive valuations, and remains overweight on private sector banks and auto stocks among the interest rate-sensitive sectors.

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