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Stock markets to be choppy: experts

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Agencies

Posted: Jan 22, 2012 at 1635 hrs IST

New Delhi Stocks are likely to see choppy trading this week as investors on Dalal Street will be influenced by RBI monetary policy, expiry of derivative contracts and corporate results, say analysts who see an upward bias in the equities market.

Besides, 13.6 per cent dip in third quarter earnings announced late last week by Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), which has heaviest weight on the BSE 30-scrip Sensex, will have some impact on the market.

The company has also announced Rs 10,440 crore buyback plan to prop share value, which has slumped last year.

RIL said it will buy back up to 12 crore equity shares from the open market at a maximum price of Rs 870 apiece in its first share buyback since 2005.

"This week will be eventful as well as volatile for the markets since Reliance results will influence Monday's trading sentiments," said Shanu Goel, Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio.

Analysts said the buyback will also influence the market.

"Moreover, the week will be shortened on account of holiday on January 26. Monetary Policy on Tuesday and F&O expiry on Wednesday will provide the next trigger for the market," she added.

Broadly, experts gave an outlook with upward bias for the market. Sensex has recently recorded smart gains, closing in the positive terrain for the third week in a row on the back of better-than-expected earnings of some companies and improved sentiment in global markets.

"There was lot of positive news for the market last week. The Supreme Court's verdict in the overseas transaction tax case against Vodafone is likely to boost the foreign investor sentiment in India. Also, market leader RIL's buy back offer came in-line with expectations.

"Markets should extend the gains but, with a limited upside," IIFL President (Retail Broking) Prashanth Prabhakaran said.

Analysts said global markets look supportive and some investors expect the Reserve Bank to start cutting lending rates in view of dip in inflation at the monetary policy review meeting on January 24.

If RBI reduces interest rates, then there will be more upside to the index, but there may be some profit-booking in case it doesn't effect any major change, experts said.

Gradual easing of funding problems in the euro-zone, improvement in the jobless claim data in the US, the appreciation of rupee against the US dollar and earnings results for the October-December quarter helped markets see smart gains last week.

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