After a separation of almost eight years since 2001 Assembly polls, the Trinamool Congress and the Congress have agreed to be the best of friends in West Bengal once again to fight the ensuing Lok Sabha polls, having formally announced a “seat-adjustment” on Thursday evening. As per the agreed terms, of a total of 42 LS seats in the state, the TMC will fight in 28 while the Congress will contest 14.

Once again, the TMC has allotted one seat out of its kitty of 28 to the Socialist Unity Center of India (SUCI) - a small but well-organised left outfit in the state that has remained out of the Left Front all these 31 years and was with Banerjee during her Nandigram-Singur agitations. There was a whole new optimism out of the renewed relationship. Though it is yet to stand the test of time — the Congress’ list is not out yet and the pitfalls of Banerjee’s nominations are yet to surface - there was fair indication of a committed move at the highest level of both the sides following an announcement made about the two fighting the Kolkata municipal polls in 2010 together.

However, Thursday’s announcement, first from Delhi by the Congress high command and later in the evening by Banerjee from her Kalighat residence, was marked by jubilation in both the sides after years of estranged relations. What promises to make this “adjustment” between two Opposition parties in Bengal a formidable one is the electoral arithmetic.

The TMC, in successive polls in the state, has maintained a vote share of over 35%, with the Congress share varying between 12% and 15%, whenever the two have fought separately. The BJP at its peak had notched up 11% plus in the state in 1999-2000. But in the recent polls, the BJP’s vote share has dwindled to about 2-3 %, the main beneficiary of this erosion being the TMC.

Therefore, the TMC and the Congress jointly add up to almost 49% to 50% of the vote share — at par with the ruling Left Front. But the evident jubilation is not restricted to simple arithmetic. A beaming Banerjee said: “We have come together responding to the people’s aspirations in the state in this poll. It is a tribute to the faith they have reposed on us. Today, we take the vow to finish the CPM politically and urge all regional outfits across India never to trust them. They will betray you.”

Dr Saugata Roy, a party veteran who has got a nomination form the Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat this time, said as much. “This time, you cannot go by pure arithmetic alone. There was a huge demand in favour of a joint fight against the CPM and the seat-adjustment tallies with the spirit of the electorate.”

The recent Assembly by-polls are certainly cases in point. In Nandigram and Bishnupur West by-polls, the TMC wrested both the seats from the Left. The Congress did not put up candidate in a show of solidarity with clear directives from the high command, making the fight one-on-one.

The results were overwhelming. In Nandigram, the TMC candidate not only bridged a deficit of about 5,000 votes of 2006 Assembly results but won with a whopping margin of over 39,000 votes.

Bishnupur West by-poll has almost been a repeat of Nandigram. The TMC had lost to the CPM by a margin of about 4,500 in 2006. This time around, the TMC candidate, in a one-on-one fight, not only made up for the gap but won with a margin of over 30,000 votes.

A happy Dinesh Dwivedi, who got a TMC nomination from Barrackpore, said the party has already analysed and found that the TMC-Congress alliance has a clear edge in over 22 of the total of 42 LS seats in the state. “Add to that the general anti-incumbency wave and the CPM is in for a rout this time,” said Dwivedi.

In fact, some veteran Left leaders also admitted in private that the TMC-Congress alliance definitely has a good prospect in the state—- one reason why Congress chief Sonia Gandhi had been so bullish about the alliance and agreed to concede almost what Banerjee demanded.

The Congress had been largely confined to North Bengal and Malda and Murshidabad districts where it has its existing six MPs. The seats in South Bengal, where the Left in general and the CPM in particular have suffered massive erosion, have largely been retained by the TMC.

There have been large-scale desertions from the LF constituent parties too. No wonder then that the veteran Communist leader, Jyoti Basu warned party comrades last week: “We have a tough fight this time. We are going to lose some seats.”