“According to advance estimate, wheat production is likely to plummet to 3.14 million tonnes this year from a record 3.83 million tonnes in 2007-08,” officials with the state agriculture department said.

Areas under wheat are expected to shrink by 10 per cent to 11.44 lakh hectares in 2008-09 from 12.73 lakh hectares last year.

The state is also likely to witness a decline in cotton output by over 3 lakh tonnes this year. The cotton production in 2008-09 has been pegged at 79.62 lakh tonnes from 82.75 lakh tonnes in 2007-08, the officials said.

“According to the estimate, acreage under Rabi has been projected to dip due to the increase in cultivation areas of some long-duration Kharif crops such as castor. Even the overall acreage under major Rabi crops is likely to dip to 30.44 lakh hectares in 2008-09, from 34.40 lakh hectares last year,” they said.

The production of rapeseed and mustard is also expected to fall to 4.72 lakh tonnes this year from 5.5 lakh tonnes in 2007-08, while castor output is estimated to increase to 8.8 lakh tonnes from 7.08 lakh tonnes last year.