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Pakistan
awaits the Bush hand
It
was on July 24 last year that the Hizbul Mujahideen announced a
ceasefire. The step had promise because, of all the militant groups,
the Hizb was primarily home grown in the Valley. Immediately other
groups, controlled across the border, got active. The Pahalgam massacre
was the result.
Despite
the setback, Union Home Secretary Kamal Pandey and other senior
officials turned up in Srinagar to pick up the dialogue with the
militants on the mend. Clearly, this bilateralism between New Delhi
and the more difficult elements in the Valley was not according
to any script approved by Islamabad. Then came Syed Salahuddin’s
retraction. Clearly, this did not find favour across the border
either. Syed Salahuddin was removed from the presidentship of the
United Jehad Council, a group of a dozen organisations pursuing
Islamic jehad in diverse ways.
New
Delhi’s enthusiastic response to the Hizbul Mujahideen had
some clear goals: We sort out our affairs with militants from the
Valley; you embark on the monumental task of establishing some coherence
among the maze of militant outfits sprawling all over Punjab. This,
latter effort, would come in handy should there ever be a change
of heart on your side to put a stop to cross border terrorism.
Even
if some sort of a coherence is established in the United Jehad Council,
Islamabad still has militant groups outside the apex body to disrupt
promising processes in the Valley. Harkat-ul-Ansar and Lashkar-e-Toiba,
for instance.
In
other words, a minefield where every step must be placed carefully,
has to be negotiated to render Kashmir hospitable to a sustained
peace process. Only a real change of heart in Islamabad can bring
about those circumstances. And even a cursory look at Pakistan,
does not instill confidence. Just look at the attack on Farooq Abdullah
and the Srinagar airport.
There
is, in contrast, a relative tranquillity along the line of control.
In fact, Defence Minister George Fernandes told me recently that
peace along the LOC and also in the Valley induces optimism. Army
Chief Padmanabhan said as much in a TV interview and recommended
that the ceasefire be extended beyond the January 26 deadline. However,
there is some doubt on the extent to which Pakistan has withdrawn
its troops from the LOC. Military sources indicate that only troops
brought in for exercises have been withdrawn.
But
too much is not being made of the extent of withdrawal. There was
some interest in the Hurriyat, singly or in a delegation, visiting
Pakistan to see how militancy can be reined in on the other side.
If I read my sources right, I believe there was a strong group within
the establishment not averse to their visit. Some of them were earlier
allowed to attend OIC summits in days when the OIC took some interest
in Kashmir — Hurriyat leaders will admit that there were few
takers for their theme at these global fora today.
But
the manner in which both the Hurriyat and their interlocutors played
up the passport issue clearly upset even the prime minister who
is otherwise so well disposed towards establishing peace with Pakistan.
Either an effort was made to trilateralise the dialogue, something
New Delhi will simply not accept at this stage, or some of the Hurriyat
talked rather insensitively about "our men" on the other
side.
The
result is that New Delhi is now, more than ever, resolved to giving
other non-Hurriyat formations in the Valley, greater play. It would
be naive to ignore the American role behind the scenes to nudge
both New Delhi and Islamabad towards rapprochement, particularly
after President Clinton’s visit to New Delhi in March. It was
between this visit and Prime Minister Vajpayee’s visit to Washington
in September that Hizb announced the ceasefire. I remember Rick
Inderfurth would not stop talking about the silence of the Pakistani
guns along the LOC. The Americans justifiably and discreetly claimed
credit for this.
There
was a swift, sharp burst to put something together in Clinton’s
last months but the time frame proved unrealistic. Equally unrealistic
is to expect Islamabad to embark on anything meaningful before the
Bush administration shows its hand on South Asia despite all the
elements of continuity being anticipated.
So,
in the meantime, progress in small doses will take place, not in
a dramatic way along the New Delhi-Islamabad axis, but within SAARC.
A meeting of technical committees took place in Islamabad. The remaining
six meetings will take place within the first quarter of the new
year — some of them in New Delhi. Who knows the SAARC standing
committee may meet to chalk out higher level dialogues. It is interesting
that pessimism on the Indo-Pak axis is matched by a positive outlook
on Indo-Pak relations in most SAARC capitals.
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