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Invite
Musharraf but no cricket
EYEBROWS
may be raised that neither the hurried response to the NMD project
nor issuing an invitation to General Pervez Musharraf and calling
off the cease-fire in Kashmir has been preceded by a sufficient
debate.
Arguably,
the general sense of chaos that attends the NDA government since
the Tehelka jolt and the subsequent defeat in the state elections
is not all pervasive. The North and South blocks, for instance,
are operating relatively cohere- ntly. Yet the absence of a wider
discussion is clearly reflective of the fact that the NDA is not
a coherent body. For instance, how does one square Uma Bharati’s
persistence that we shall not play cricket with Pakistan with the
prime minister’s invitation to Musharraf?
It
is an incredible political picture. On the one hand is the declining
image of the NDA government, morally, and more recently, electorally
debilitated. On the other is the absolute certainty that no political
upheaval is strong enough to scuttle its longevity. The only possible
hiccup en route could be the Presidential election next year.
Those
expecting heavens to fall after the anticipated drubbing that is
in store for the BJP in UP in October or latest by March, are also
likely to be disappointed. Everybody has missed out on the magic
nature of this coalition. How does one explain the continuous bumps
on the way, the scary thrill of the roller coaster, and the government’s
assured lon-gevity despite the perilous journey?
There
is a misplaced tendency to expect the NDA structure to be fragile
because the United Front, which preceded it, was so imminently collapsible.
The simple fact is that in 1996 neither of the large parties could
form a government by themselves. Therefore, the Congress, decided
to support the third front from the outside. The Congress was in
the psychological frame of mind to play the noble role of supporting
a structure to keep the BJP out. Narasimha Rao had just led the
party to its lowest vote ever.
But
for Congressmen to be in the vicinity of power without savouring
any of it was as unnatural as keeping a baby away from a lactating
mother. So the United Front was pulled down. Don’t forget,
at one stage the Congress, in its impatience, had very nearly created
the nucleus of a sort of coalition the BJP later wove. But Congressmen
themselves pulled down Kesri who had dreamt up an audacious scenario.
Sonia Gandhi’s ‘‘we have 272’’ was woefully
short on homework.
So,
the UP fragility was defined by two basic points: A big chunk of
140 seats was outside the power structure. Secondly, it never could
endear itself to big business. The BJP, having learnt from the Congress
mistakes, has placed itself at the heart of the NDA.
It
has also taken full advantage of the contradictions between the
Congress and the UF partners which sharpened even as the Left thwarted
every bid by the Congress to share power directly or at least indirectly
through the coordination committee. Remember Harkishen Singh Surjeet’s
refrain: ‘‘How can we share power with them.We are in
direct conflict with them in at least eight states.’’
That
exactly is the source of the NDA’s longevity. Supposing, Chandrababu
Naidu finds his association with the BJP deleterious to his health,
what alternative will he turn to unless the Congress decides to
liquidate itself in Andhra Pradesh. Even if he does summon up the
courage because some powerful Americans believe he can be PM, there
is always Mulayam Singh Yadav, with Amar Singh in tow, willing to
play convoluted games to enable the survival of the NDA.
The
ultimate irony, of course, is that the Congress now rules in 11
states, shares power in other two. Who knows Punjab too may be added
to its tally. If Priyanka Gandhi can be persuaded to make her debut
in UP, the political scene could be electrified.
So
far, Sonia Gandhi has been seen as an enabling factor, one who by
her inability to forge coalitions enables the Vajpayee government
to continue. From now onwards her inaction will be seen as the politics
of restraint, one that gives the NDA the rope by which it will hang
itself by the next general elections.
Vajpayee
meanwhile is not allowing himself to be pulverized by Tehelka, defeat
in the state elections, and the threatened traffic in and out of
the NDA coalition.
He
knows the arithmetic ensures longevity and is therefore, even while
admitting mistakes in Kashmir, taking audacious initiatives in the
spheres of foreign policy, national security and the economy. Contrary
to the impression, I suspect, L. K. Advani is with him, mollifying
the restive RSS. Both the recent initiatives on Kashmir and Pakistan
have twin possibilities. Success will win Vajpayee, kudos universally,
failure will give the RSS an opportunity.
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