A latter day Ataturk?

Once Musharraf takes the brave decision, the Americans will refashion their ties with Pakistan

IS General Pervez Musharraf’s survival at the helm in Pakistan of any consequence to us?” I asked one of the more thoughtful men in Indian public life. He fell into deep thought.

The discussion was about the military build-up. The situation was fraught with dangers as well as possibilities for us as also for the general.”When a strong wind blows, the grass bends.” I offered a lazy, tentative thought explaining the general’s behaviour. Then, after a pause, I corrected myself. “But that image implies that after the wind has blown over the grass straightens and thrives, weeds et al.”

Basically, the image is based on the appraisal of the Americans as having short attention spans. It does not take into account September 11, the day the world changed, including or rather led by the Americans.

The air campaign is entering its 100th day, the longest since the Gulf and the Kosovo wars. Meanwhile, permanent bases are coming up. I have seen them at Kuliab and Dushanbe in Tajikistan, Manas in Kyrgizistan, Khanabad in Uzbekistan and eight others, including some in Pakistan.

Meanwhile the International security assistance team is incrementally throwing a security cordon around the establishment being led by Hamid Karzai in Kabul. In other words, there is a permanent, secure architecture being put in place in Afghanistan so the wind is not blowing over. The U-turn effected by General Musharraf in his Afghan policy was under extreme American pressure. But it was also, according to observers of the Pakistan scene, a considered policy of ridding his country of the Jehadi menace, something he had begun in small doses even prior to September 11.

Pessimists were predicting a destabilisation of Pakistan, civil unrest, Musharraf in line of danger. But in the event what really happened? Nothing happened. A few expected protests fizzled out. The pessimists, in my view, demonstrated a poor grasp of the subcontinental Muslim mind.

Remember when Rajiv Gandhi was grappling with the idea of upgrading relations with Israel? How his advisers, those whose views were valuable to gauge the Muslim mind, scared him of upsetting the Muslim vote. Rajiv initiated the process, P.V. Narasimha Rao concluded it. Not only was there no adverse Muslim reaction but some groups got in touch with Kaplan Travels in Jerusalem for a pilgrimage to Al Aqsa.

Is Musharraf about to take the risk again, this time on the question of terminating terrorism directed at Kashmir and India? Of course. The massive Indian military build-up is real and even dangerous. But analysts occasionally develop an amnesia about the vigour of Indian democracy. The other day some of us journalists shared a table with Home Minister L.K. Advani. I was astonished at the war mongering around the table, which made Advani look like a cooing dove. I suddenly became aware how relatively tepid my response to Dec 13 had been. Of course, the military build-up is tactical and fringe elements hope to benefit in the February elections to the UP and Punjab assemblies but to dwell just on these would be to trivialise the build-up. The build-up is in response to the strength of public opinion that took some of us by surprise — around that table, for instance.

Therefore, it is wrong on the part of Pakistani interlocutor’s who complain that there are elements in India “who would like to rub Pakistan’s nose to the ground”. That is peeved response. Did you hear what British Prime Minister Tony Blair said in Islamabad? The international community will not tolerate terrorism in support of political causes — even political causes whose strength and logic cannot be disputed and which must be settled. President Bush is a little less categorical but he is almost there. Americans are very clear on two things: they would like Musharraf to pull back from terrorism but they will not push him beyond a point. His survival is important. India cannot pull back from the brink because its bottomline after December 13 is exactly the same as the one that turned out to be a deal breaker in Agra — end cross-border terrorism.

In July it looked like a maximum demand being advanced too early. Since September and December anything less makes no sense.
The evaluation in Washington, London, Paris, Bonn is that the Army is squarely behind Musharraf and the Jehadi groups are too fragmented. Once Musharraf takes the brave decision, the Americans are waiting to refashion their long-term relationship with Pakistan — this will come with financial assistance and arms transfers (on commercial basis which would cheer up the arms industry in the US and the Army in Pakistan). The Chinese have their own problems in Xinxiang and the Chinese premier’s visit mid-January can only add to good sense without letting down Pakistan.

Ghalib describes Prophet Abraham’s courageous leap into the fire of Nimrod: it became a garden. Pardon my lyrical excesses but I believe Musharraf stands at that defining moment in history when a courageous step could well earn him the title of a latter day Ataturk. He must, of course, make it clear that abandoning terrorism is without prejudice to his total political support for Kashmir, the issue which, along with others, must be settled through dialogue with India.

My political friend, who has considerable say in matters of state, suddenly came back with a start. “If Musharraf is a man of that mettle then we must have an interest in his survival”.

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