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June
16, 2001
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Rational
Expectations
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Tough
solutions at Microsoft
While
it hasnt got too much media attention in India, much of the
US is waiting with bated breath for the imminent ruling of the federal
appeals court reviewing the Microsoft anti-trust case. Based on
the tough questioning of the governments case in February,
legal analysts are of the view that the court will over-turn at
least some part of Judge Jacksons findings that led to the
ruling that Microsoft be split. Penfield had found that the company
illegally tied its browser into its operational system, and that
it used its market muscle to coerce companies such as Hewlett Packard
not to buy rival software. Notes also surfaced during the trial
showing that Microsoft was trying to carve up the browser market
by asking Netscape to collude with it.
If
part of Jacksons findings are reversed, it is likely the split-Microsoft
order will be reversed the case will then go on into a long-drawn
process to determine appropriate punishment and Microsoft will be
home well and dry.
All
that, of course, is in the future, albeit the near one, and things
could just go horribly wrong for the software czar. Whats
happening now, however, is almost another re-birth at Microsoft.
For one, theres Windows XP to be released on October 25, a
potent new-version operating system that is especially suited to
make web operations faster. Then there is the Hailstorm
Internet initiative thats designed to get Microsoft right
up there as a leader in web-based solutions linked to these
are devices such as the Pocket PC that is directly aimed at hitting
the Palm kind of handheld devices market, there is the Stinger software
that is supposed to do wonders to Internet telephony, the Xbox which
is a game-console thats three times more powerful than rival
consoles from Sony and Nintendo, and many more (see the June 4 issue
of BusinessWeek for more details). An obviously worried top executive
of Sun Microsystems told the magazine these products would turn
the Internet into a company town a Microsoft town.
Apart
from the fact that the collapse of hundreds of Internet-based would-be
rivals has helped it look tall once again, BusinessWeek reports
Microsoft has a cash trove of $30 bn (30 times that of AOL, and
six times that of Oracle), and this allowed it to spend an average
of $16 bn per annum on R&D over 1996 to 2000, as compared to
Suns 10 and Oracles nine, while AOLs spend fell
from seven in 1996 to 1.5 in 2000. While Cisco and Yahoo are laying
off workers, Microsoft hopes to hire 8,000 people this year.
Apart
from the impact the ruling will have on the software industry, it
will also have a significant bearing on the still-evolving case
law on the subject in India. While the complexities of the Microsoft
case puzzled even people in lawsuit-happy America, it is safe to
say few in India even comprehended what the whole fuss was about
not surprising, considering India has a less than robust
case history of actions against anti-competitive behaviour.
There
has been the odd lawsuit like the one Pepsi filed against Coke three
years ago for attempting to disrupt its business by hiring a large
number of
its core staff, its bottlers, and so on.
And
Hindustan Levers merger with TOMCO was challenged in the courts
on the grounds it would lead to a monopoly. Similarly, the government
did labour over selling IPCL to Reliance Industries as this would
create a huge monopoly. But all these, however, really dealt with
simple monopoly issues. In the IPCL case, the arguments were also
simplistic, because the government simply added IPCL and Reliances
market shares to settle the monopoly argument it never paid
heed to the argument that since imports were allowed, this nixed
the monopoly-pricing argument. Essentially, the decision was taken
with a view to the potential political fallout of being seen to
be favouring Reliance.
Yet,
when it comes to rampant anti-competitive behaviour (like firms
forcing distributors to pick up their slow-moving products if they
want to sell the fast-selling ones), there is virtually no legal
action. Similarly, when The Times of India, which is one of Indias
largest selling newspapers, decided to give its portal a leg-up,
it carried huge front-page stories that were distorted to rubbish
Yahoo on successive days after its India launch yet, no trust-buster
took any kind of action against the newspaper. The closest India
has got to complex anti-trust work was the telecom regulator asking
MTNL to separate its proposed cellular operations, to ensure the
cellular business was not subsidised by the existing fixed-line
one.
The
point, however, is that such complex Microsoft-kind of anti-trust
activities are increasingly becoming a part of Indias corporate
landscape. In telecom, for instance, how is one to deal with top
players like Birla, AT&T and Tata combining to offer services?
Is this anti-competitive? Or should a cellular service provider
be the one providing Internet services as well, and how does one
ensure theres no anti-competitive practice here?
While
the Microsoft judgement will provide clues on how Indias courts
and lawyers could tackle such issues, Indias policy makers
would do well to study how the US and European trust-busters operate.
Its a matter of trust!
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