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September
1, 2001
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Rational
Expectations
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The
age of indifference
Faint
stirrings of post-reform India
SO
this session of Parliament is finally over, the Opposition’s had
its fun pillorying the government on Tehelka, Telecom, and a few
other Things, but what was achieved? The fact that 33 Bills were
passed in 32 hours — some like those on plant varieties took just
a few minutes, with few MPs present — only underscores the point
about the sheer apathy of our parliamentarians.
This
newspaper, along with others, has been detailing RBI reports on
the very poor shape some of our top financial institutions (FIs)
are in. A few days ago, we also carried a report stating the RBI
found that one of every 10 co-operative banks was weak, a potential
disaster like Madhavpura or Krushi — by the way, the RBI pointed
this out to the state governments last year as well. You’d think
the MPs who shed tears over how millions had lost their trust in
UTI would have hauled the government over the coals. But, perhaps
because the same industrialists who’ve looted these banks are also
funding their parties, our honourable MPs decided not to bother
about what could well lead to a financial crisis of south-east Asian
proportions here.
Sadly,
instead of being a forum to get the government to focus on policy
issues/lacunae, Parliament’s become a mere debating hall, where
the emphasis is on scoring points and rubbishing the opponent. So,
the government wants a debate on UTI or Tehelka in Lok Sabha where
they have the numbers, and the Opposition wants it in Rajya Sabha.
The problem is that our MPs, and that includes those in government,
have absolutely no clue about just how bad things are. Our beloved
prime minister, who blithely told the Planning Commission he wanted
them to target a 9 per cent growth in the 10th Plan period — such
is his oratory, he made the target sound like the growth had been
assured — of course leads the pack in terms of his innocence.
A
9 per cent target sounds good, but does he know that growth in the
first two years of the next Plan is largely dependent on the investments
that have already been made? So, the only hope of upping growth
in the 10th Plan is to sharply up savings and investments over the
next 3 years. A planning commission estimate shows savings rates
will have to be increased from around 25 per cent now to a whopping
43 per cent in 3 years, and investment rates from 27 per cent to
46 per cent! For that, you need to woo investors, change labour
laws immediately, completely abolish subsidies ...
Similarly,
our MPs were quite happy to rubbish India in comparison to China,
and even tiny Vietnam, but as Planning Minister Arun Shourie points
out, these MPs are the very reason why India is in such bad shape.
Investors love China, Shourie told MPs last fortnight, because it
has no trade unions in special economic zones, and workers can be
fi–red at a month’s notice — we marvel at China, but the same MPs
won’t allow flexible labour laws in India. Losses of electricity
boards have gone up from Rs 4,000 crore a decade ago to Rs 22,000
crore today, but when a Chandrababu Naidu hikes tariffs in Andhra
Pradesh, the BJP and the Congress go on a protest march.
Vietnam
taxes local firms at between 32 and 45 per cent, but foreign firms
pay just 10 per cent, and 16 per cent of foreign investment in Vietnam
since 1988 is in agriculture, a banned area for corporate investors
(forget about foreign ones) in India. Plus, as Shourie points out,
the real issue is governance — 53 per cent of PDS grain, and over
40 per cent of power gets stolen even in Delhi where the Union Government
resides, but no one’s really worried about it. The list goes on.
There’s
this story of how when, as editor of this newspaper, Shourie wrote
something about President Giani Zail Singh, he was very upset and
asked Shourie to see him. Yet, when Gianiji met Shourie, he hugged
him very warmly, and exchanged all manner of pleasantries. A somewhat
exasperated aide then reminded Gianiji that he had to rebuke Shourie.
To which Gianiji replied, ‘Aanu likhne do, padhda kaun hai?’
(let him write, who reads?).
And
when no one reads, how can anyone be bothered? The age of indifference.
And, a logical corollary, of indifferent performance.
Postscript:
Last month, this column as well as a front-page story by this writer,
referred to how the country’s pink press had, in the past, given
glowing reports of Cyberspace Infosys. (This is the company UTI
lost Rs 32 crore in later.) The idea was to show how the media also
contributed, somewhat mindlessly, to the ‘new economy’ hype. Since
then, thanks partly to prodding by T.N. Ninan who edits Business
Standard which was one of the papers mentioned, I’ve reviewed
what I wrote.
And
while I still stand by the broad conclusions I made then, I concede
Ninan’s point that it was unfair not to get his point of view first
— I didn’t think it essential then, as the piece was on already-published
stories, but getting the other view, even if you don’t agree with
it, is a journalistic must-do. It’s also true that while the BS
story contributed to furthering the Cyberspace myth, it wasn’t anywhere
near the hyperbole dished out by more illustrious rivals. So, clubbing
BS with them was unfair, but then BS’ credibility is so much
higher isn’t it?
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