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September
15, 2001
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Rational
Expectations
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Brothers
against Islamic terror?
LIBERALS
in the office, and I’m sure elsewhere, are in a tizzy following
the terrorist attack on the US. Hindutva hawks such as L.K. Advani
and Murli Manohar Joshi, they’re convinced, will now puff up their
chests, gloating over the fact that the US now finally sees things
in India’s point of view. That there’s a wave of terror funded by
Islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, that the Kashmir
problem is not one of self-determination as Pakistan suggests, but
really one of Pak-sponsored terrorism, and so on.
As
someone who’s voted BJP all these years, I must confess I’m with
the liberals on this one, though for different reasons. As Home
Minister, Advani has reason to be pleased about India being taken
seriously when she asks the US to lean on Pakistan to give up Dawood
Ibrahim. But beyond that, what?
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The
US sharing India’s threat perception won’t sort out India’s
mess which is mainly economic
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Will
India get a lot more US aid or concessional Fund-Bank loans because
it is a victim of pan-Islamic terror? Or is George Bush expected
to tell his corporate constituency, including Enron, to invest more
in India since ‘these folks are on our side’? Clearly not. So let’s
get it clear, no matter how serious the Kashmir problem, India’s
real problem is not terrorism — we have got over Punjab, haven’t
we? Just like the US has not been brought down to its knees by terrorist
attacks over the years, India won’t be able to stand tall merely
because the US will now co-operate in eliminating terrorism (by
the way, that sounds romantic and easy, but it’s easier said than
done).
The
real issue is of getting India’s economy on track, the government’s
ability to govern, and the Opposition’s ability to keep it on its
toes. Can you believe that Prime Minister Vajpayee actually told
this newspaper last Sunday that having focussed too closely on the
survival of his government among a 24-member coalition all these
years, he now ‘wants to govern’ in the next two years! And such
is the state of the Opposition it never even took this up. A philosophical
Vajpayee then did one better. Mocking at himself, he said the decision
to remove Urban Affairs minister Jagmo- han wasn’t the most courageous
one he’d made, but Jagmohan’s actions (demolishing illegal structures
and encroachments) would have affected the BJP’s performance in
the municipal corporation elections. That’s governance for you,
allowing such petty considerations to play a major role in government
functioning — it is though, both charming and disarming of Vajpayee
to admit as much.
The
point, however, is now what? It’s been close to 18 months since
the government began the process of getting back around Rs 500 crore
of license fee dues from telecom firm Bharti Limited, but the matter
keeps going around in circles, from one Attorney General-opinion
to another, and yet another. It now appears that one outgoing Member
in the Department of Telecom is not agreeing to what the politicians
want, so the hunt is on for a suitable successor — and the matter
which should have been a routine administrative one, will now be
decided by the Cabinet.
Over
Rs 565 crore are overdue from the Rais of Koshika Telecom, but the
government has not been able to take a decision on cancelling their
last licence. A CBI case has been registered against the group,
alleging they forged bills to be able to siphon off hundreds of
crore rupees of loans from government-controlled financial institutions,
but the Rais haven’t even been asked to appear before the CBI yet
— that’s governance for you. Clearly one group in government wanted
to seem tough, so they got the case initiated, and now the other’s
holding the investigations back.
Other
decisions the government’s not taking are equally perplexing. The
United Front government had given a commitment, for instance, that
the petroleum sector would be completely freed up by April 1 next
year. Now in order to do that, subsidies on kerosene have to be
cut to just a third of global prices, and those on LPG to a mere
15 per cent — currently, and that’s just six months before D-day,
the subsidy per cylinder of LPG sold to consumers is around 45 per
cent. Clearly some action should have been taken by now — after
all, this is an administrative decision. But even if that had not
happened, one would have thought the current crisis (and the volatile
oil prices) would have been used as a pretext to cut subsidies.
Instead, you have ministers, Ram Naik and Yashwant Sinha, signalling
that prices won’t go up.
Another
routine decision that should have been taken is that of allowing
fertilizer imports as these are very low-priced right now. Yet,
in the name of protecting the farmer, this is not being done even
though it is well-known that the major part of the fertilizer subsidy
doesn’t go to the farmer, but to high-cost fertilizer plants. Several
committees have also been set up, as is the wont of the government,
to examine the issue. They have all given their recommendations
but still no decision has been taken. So, what should have been
routine stuff has now been given the honour of becoming a ‘political’
decision which will, naturally, need ‘political consensus’.
All
this, of course, is set to change since the PM now wants ‘to govern’,
and because of the new-found Indo-US axis. If wishes were horses
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