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October
6, 2001
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Rational
Expectations
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After
the word, what?
Read
various newspaper reports of how the government got egg all over
its face in the hijack that never was, and one of the things that
strikes you immediately is that of the unlocked cockpit door. In
the weeks after the September 11 attacks in the US, newly-inducted
aviation minister Shahnawaz Hussain said that in future pilots would
keep their cockpit doors locked, to prevent any would-be hijackers
from getting control of the plane. Well, guess what, while conveying
news of the ‘hijack’ on Thursday morning, one of the first things
the air traffic controllers told the pilot to do — and that he did
— was to lock the cockpit door to ensure the hijackers never entered
the plane’s cockpit! In other words, despite the government announcing
its decision on cockpits, someone forgot to tell the pilots.
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The
recent ‘hijack’ showed that cockpits remain unlocked despite
being mandatory post-WTC
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And
if you think that’s typical of government decisions, today’s papers
have yet another kind of example — that of indecision over a decision.
As one of the preconditions of its entry into the country some years
ago, Coca Cola had agreed that it would sell a large part of its
equity to the Indian public by July 2002. But since Coke has made
accumulated losses of Rs 2,178 crore and wiped out two-thirds of
its original investment, it wants this condition to be postponed
by another five years. Any extension has been opposed by both the
food processing and the finance ministries who’ve argued that Coke
was obligated to dilute its equity holding and any relaxation for
one firm would encourage other firms to follow suit on different
grounds.
Yet,
the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) which has to decide
on the matter, has postponed its decision. Why, surely it can give
a decision one way or the other right now? The last big case where
the FIPB deferred a decision — for close to a full year! — was the
case relating to ICI buying the stake of one of the Asian Paints
promoters and the issue was whether this was legal. At that time,
very high-stakes lobbying went on for a year — one hopes this is
not the reason for the FIPB deferring the Coke decision.
The
ultimate in indecision, of course, as this column reported last
week, is what happens when a file moves from one government department
to another, for not just months on end, but even years. In one case,
chronicled by disinvestment minister Arun Shourie in a recent book,
an IAS officer, in Maharashtra is to be suspended for corruption,
and permission to prosecute him is sought from the central government
in June 1985. The file then does the rounds between various departments
of the Union government, and 15 years later, the additional secretary
in charge of security and vigilance puts an end to the case. On
February 14, 2000, he writes to the chief secretary of Maharashtra,
requesting him to modify the penalty from dismissal from service
to compulsory retirement, with a 10 per cent cut in his monthly
pension. This order, he clarifies, is in compliance with the September
7, 1998 judgement of the Central Administrative Tribunal’s Mumbai
bench (!)
After
reading last week’s column, a friend called up to ask what the relevance
of the Shourie extracts was. Somewhat upset, but patiently (after
all, the regular reader’s a near-extinct species) I explained that
this was the first time that a file’s movement had been tracked
so extensively, and that too by a union minister. So what, my friend
persevered, besides, isn’t Shourie’s job to put an end to all this
instead of just reporting it with a somewhat peculiar sense of glee?
Touche!
Well,
Shourie’s got his chance now. Some years ago, for instance, this
paper’s ex-editor got all of us to sit up and take notice while
propounding his Northeast aid-charade story. He said that if you
took all the money the government spent on various aid programmes
for the Northeast and threw it down from a helicopter, the chances
of a resident getting at least a part of the money was higher, many
times higher, than getting any benefit from the current lot of development
programmes. Close to one hundred per cent of all foodgrain meant
for ration shops, for instance, in several Northeastern states gets
diverted to those it is not meant for.
The
question now is whether, as minister in charge of development of
the Northeast, Shourie will be able to change all this, or whether
this stint will just result in a series of great journalist-type
exposes. If it does result in the latter, and the system triumphs,
will it be because the NDA lacks the political muscle to be able
to ram through the much-needed bureaucratic and legislative changes?
And does that mean we need to have the Rajiv Gandhi kind of brute
majority (405 seats in the Lok Sabha) to be able to really change
things? Because one thing’s certain, there’s no way any political
party will get anywhere near this for a long time. Unless, of course,
some major political leader dies and, in the process, gets a major
sympathy vote for his/her party, the way that Indira and Rajiv did
for the Congress. Under the circumstances, each successive government
could just be more of the same. Great copy, poor governance.
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