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December
29, 2001
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Rational
Expectations
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The
power of churning
A thought
that kept surfacing during a visit to Japan some weeks ago, while
talking of that country’s serious economic crisis, was that there
was a real dearth of new entrepreneurship — Japanese business, like
its society, it would appear, is really ageing. Possibly, someone
postulated, the Japanese education system’s emphasis on producing
conformists had virtually killed the entrepreneurial spirit and,
two, with big business’ stranglehold over the financial and distribution
system, newcomers didn’t have a chance.
By
this yardstick alone, India is doing wonderfully — a comparison
of the top ten firms shows up mostly newcomers every decade or so,
and that process is also speeding up now. The last couple of years,
for instance, saw the sudden rise of the dotcom crorepatis (the
Rajesh Jains and Pradeep Kars), followed, of course, by their now-famous
demise. Kar sold his remaining stake in Indya.com to Star TV, which
laid off most staffers just a few months later, but talk to Kar
even now and he’s quite upbeat about consolidating his other business.
Or when was the first time you ever heard of someone called N.R.
Narayana Murthy, or Azim Premji in a really serious manner — just
a few years ago, right? — and today their companies are the country’s
most-talked about.
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The fact that the top 10 firms are virtually
new every ten years is India’s real strength
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It
would, of course, be foolish to write off the Murthys and Premjis
of the world just because of the global tech squeeze which, in any
case, is now beginning to ease. Premji’s wealth, in terms of his
Wipro shareholding, is down from Rs 46,500 crore at the year’s beginning
to 34,700 now and Murthy’s from 10,800 to 8,800. But even if one
were to do so, the fact is that this year saw the phenomenal rise
of the pharma crorepatis who have also shot to fame really over
the last few years — in the sense of being serious research players
as opposed to ‘reverse engineers’ which is the glorified name for
copycats. Did you know that the biggest gainer on the stock markets
this year was Dr Reddy’s Lab? Market capitalisation, or the value
of all the shares on the stock markets, for the Reddy group rose
from Rs 4,000-odd crore at the end of last year to Rs 7,700 crore
some days ago, or a rise of a whopping 88 per cent. Five of the
top ten firms whose market capitalisation rose the most this year,
in fact, are from the pharma sector.
Don’t
want to talk pharma? Well what about Ekta Kapoor, who shot into
fame from nowhere (the fact that her father is yesteryear’s matinee
idol Jeetendra surely didn’t help get her the breaks she needed
in TV), and today produces almost every other television serial
you can think of. Other stars of the last few years, again from
virtual anonymity, are the likes of Amit Judge of Barrista coffee
pubs fame and Rajen Raheja of Shoppers Stop fame — the retail chain,
though, is more associated with its CEO, B.S. Nagesh.
And
in case you think the retail hype won’t last long — after all, even
the biggies like Shoppers’ are bleeding badly — there’s a huge change
happening at your neighbourhood kirana store level as well. There
are entrepreneurs, like Shivir Jain of eFoodMart, who are getting
small kiranas to join hands, to be able to buy in bulk and get larger
discounts. Another major success story that is making huge forays
into new areas is Amul — the cooperative sector milk giant’s getting
into pizzas, restaurants, you name it.
Major
changes are also taking place on the agricultural front, with corporates
like ITC and Hindustan Lever setting up all manner of e-biz initiatives
to maximise farm output. Mahindra Shubhlabh Services, for instance,
has set up various Krishi Vihars to try and get rid of inefficiencies
in the agriculture chain and also to assist farmers to attain hikes
in productivity. It’s first Krishi Vihar programme for paddy began
in Madurai in October last year. More than 80 percent of the farmers
registered were able to get yields of more than 3,000 kg per hectare
which was the benchmark fixed — the prevailing yield in that area
was 1,750 kg. ITC, which is big in the farm sector for both its
tobacco as well as its oilseeds purchases, has a quarter million
farmers selling their produce on its e-chaupals. In other areas,
through NGOs like the Gram Vikas Samiti, the government itself has
been conducting pilot experiments to help hike productivity dramatically.
In Barabanki, near Lucknow, maize yields jumped from four quintals
per acre to 30, and incomes of farmers who began growing maize jumped
nearly six times — one farmer even saw yields improve 16 times.
This
is the power of churning, if you will, and this is what will ensure
that the economy will do well in the future. Sure, for every such
individual initiative, there’ll be hundreds that get killed precisely
because of the country’s massive red-tape — after all, even today,
the board of even a cooperative as successful as Amul can be superseded
by the local collector at will, just like that. This, of course,
is India’s challenge in the years to come. The loosening of controls
over the last decade is, after all, responsible for all the changes
we’ve been talking about. Long live churning.
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