|
March
2, 2002
|
|
Rational
Expectations
|
The
action-not-taken report
The
real problem with the common man, my teacher Kaushik Basu wrote
many years ago, is that despite the plethora of ‘common man’ budgets
over the years, his lot has almost conspired to remain so, well,
common. A thought, I’m sure, shared by various finance ministers
like Yashwant Sinha whose budget was lambasted by these very common
men and (I’m sure he feels) even commoner analysts. Sinha, though,
perhaps has a footnote to add — a grievance about the economy. Sinha,
you see, began this practice last year of submitting action taken
reports on various promises made. Problem is, that while the ATRs
seem to suggest a very large part of the budget’s promises have
been met, the ungracious economy just doesn’t seem to respond.
|
|
Why don’t finance
ministers submit reports of the major actions they were not
able to take?
|
|
But
take a look at the ATR, and you figure out why it doesn’t seem worth
the paper it’s printed on. Sure, it tells you that, against the
provision of Rs 61 crore that was to be made for Farm Water Management
in eastern India, a provision of Rs 70 crore has been made. Or that
the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana has indeed been given the Rs
2,500 crore it was to get.
But
when it comes to the major policy announcements that government
hasn’t been able to get much done on, the replies are so bureaucratic,
they don’t tell you anything. Last year, for instance, Sinha spoke
of how the government granaries were overflowing and how the entire
policy of central procurement needed to be re-thought (this year,
the granaries have 3.4 times the stock they need, and this cost
them Rs 5,700 crore extra) — so he announced that FCI’s role would
be curtailed, that state governments would be asked to procure and
distribute foodgrains on their own. What happened after that is
well known. The states refused to go along, and the scheme’s all
but dead. Well, here’s what this year’s ATR has to say about it:
a committee was set up and this has had two meetings, chief ministers
have expressed their concerns, and the committee is “continuing
its work and modalities for making changes in management of Food
Economy will be made in consultation and cooperation of the states”.
Make of that what you will.
Last
year, Sinha promised to introduce legislation making it easier for
firms to lay off workers, and to amend the Contract Labour Act.
Well, that never happened, and it was only last month that the Cabinet
cleared the first part of the proposed legislation. With the Congress
opposed to it, clearly the proposal’s going nowhere, but here’s
what the ATR has to say: “The Group of Ministers... has decided
to hold further discussions... in order to finalise its views on
the proposal to enact a new legislation....”
So
what use is the ATR really? And when will the ATRs actually start
looking at the real issues? Merely talking of the crores spent on
projects, it is obvious, doesn’t mean anything. For a really evocative
example, see the NIPFP report by Indira Rajaraman on Punjab. We
all know how much money successive local governments in Punjab have
spent on education or irrigation, right? What Rajaraman’s done is
to figure out just how this money is really spent. In the case of
the education, for instance, just 1 per cent is spent on capital
expenditure like books, blackboards and chalk. And close to 90 per
cent of irrigation outlays are spent on salaries, leaving precious
little for building canals and waterways.
Or
take this budget’s main plank — that of getting state governments
to carry out reforms in the farm sector by linking this to an incentive
fund of sorts. This, as this newspaper has argued earlier, is in
itself no guarantee of success. For, in the case of the Incentive
Fund created by the Eleventh Finance Commission, the parameters
used to judge if states are reforming are very liberal. But try
telling people in Andhra Pradesh — generally touted as one of the
‘reformist’ states — about how great their government is, and they’ll
laugh at you. Especially the 1.4 lakh rickshaw pullers and other
no-hopers who lost over Rs 430 crore in the collapse of the Charminar
Cooperative Bank earlier this week.
Banks
can collapse, it is true, but what happened to this one was truly
shocking. As long ago as September last year, the RBI inspected
the bank and recommended to the state government (only the state
has this power) that its board be superseded as the bank was not
in good shape — its lending practices were flawed and it did not
conform to RBI guidelines. Well, guess what? The government sat
on the report, and it was only when the bank collapsed that Chief
Minister Naidu made the report public.
For
the millions who’ve lost their life’s savings in this manner — apart
from the UTI fiasco, we’ve had 10 major stock market scams in the
last decade — the huge imposts Sinha’s imposed in his budget are
quite inconsequential. None of them would mind paying a lot more
tax, or have the interest rates on their NSCs cut even further,
if only they could have some genuine governance. Especially since
the prime minister did say, to this newspaper’s editor some months
ago, that in the last two years of his term he’d like to concentrate
on governance.
|