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Poll
prospect: BJP realistic after party survey
Sharad Gupta
New Delhi,
April 22:
THE outcome of the Assembly elections in five states scheduled to
be held on May 10 is unlikely to be music to BJP leaders’ ears.
The inference has been drawn much before the battle for ballots
has begun, not by the Opposition but by the BJP leaders themselves,
on the basis of internal surveys conducted by them. The BJP leaders
seem to have realised that though the party might add only a few
more seats to its existing tally in Assam and Tamil Nadu, it is
in no position to come to power in any of the five states. Not even
with the help of regional parties. The party does not have any presence
in Kerala and Pondicherry.
In West Bengal,
the BJP which had only one seat in the outgoing Assembly, is content
in spoiling the electoral arithmetic of the Congress-Trinamool Congress
alliance. Contesting on its own, the party may not win many seats
— even its sitting MLA, Badal Bhattacharya is likely to lose
— but having secured the support of the Ajit Panja faction
of the Trinamool Congress, the BJP hopes to stall the Congress-Trinamool
alliance from coming to power.
‘‘The
NDA Government won’t be affected if Left Front retains West
Bengal, but Congress already having its government in nine states,
may step up its campaign against the Centre,’’ said a
senior BJP leader. What the BJP has not realised so far is that
there may be a polarisation between the CPI(M) and anti-CPI(M) votes,
sending its calculations haywire.
Similarly,
the party which stood a good chance of becoming the main Opposition
party in Assam after aligning with the AGP, would have to be content
with holding third position after the Congress and the AGP. The
BJP rebels led by Hiranmaya Bhattacharya too would damage the chances
of BJP candidates, they feel, as all efforts to pacify rebels have
come a cropper. The BJP would have won at least a dozen seats out
of the 15 allotted to it as a constituent of the DMK-led alliance
in Tamil Nadu if the MDMK had not decided to walk out of the alliance.
The BJP has
a substantial presence in the three Tamil Nadu districts —
Coimbtore, Nilgiri and Kanyakumari — party leaders claim. But
the MDMK, which is strong in the same region, is likely to spoil
the BJP’s chances in the southern state where it holds only
two Assembly seats in the outgoing Assembly. The party leaders now
feel that the BJP would not be able to win more than half a dozen
seats. BJP leaders attribute MDMK leader Vaiko’s decision to
leave the DMK-led alliance on DMK chief M. Karunanidhi’s inclination
to project his son M.K. Stalin as his successor. Stalin could not
have taken over from his father if Vaiko was around, BJP leaders
said adding that this was the reason why even Murasoli Maran felt
slighted.
The party feels
that this time, elections in Tamil Nadu would take place strictly
on caste-lines. The DMK-led alliance enjoys the support of Mudaliyars,
Avari Dalits, Yadavs and urban Schedule Castes while the AIADMK-led
alliance has the support of Vanniars, Thevars, Christians and Nadas.
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