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Jungle
law may turn elephant against lotus
Despite backing
from Delhi, the BJP’s electoral tie-up with AGP faces threat from
grassroots grumbling
Samudra
Gupta Kashyap
 Guwahati,
April 23: In downtown Guwahati, BJP and AGP workers have been
spending time wiping out a particular graffiti written almost all
over the city: Haati jabo, haat gol, padum fulibor samay hol (The
hand is already finished. It is now time for the elephant to quit
and make room for the lotus to bloom). The two parties have joined
hands to fight the Assembly polls but it won’t be an easy task;
rumblings within both, especially the BJP, means they need all the
help they can get. Even a misplaced slogan could upset the apple-cart.
In real terms,
the alliance has nothing to worry about. The AGP’s traditional
grip on the state will only be buttressed by the BJP’s growing
popularity. From winning 0.37 per cent of the vote in 1985 Lok Sabha
elections, the BJP won exactly 33 per cent in the 1999 elections.
This, in fact,
prompted a belief within the party’s state leadership that
they would be fighting the elections alone. Until the top brass
decided earlier this month to tie up with the AGP. This has created
dissent within BJP, with state chief Rajen Gohain saying he was
unhappy with the alliance and former vice-president H.K. Bhattacharyya
quitting the party to form ‘Asom BJP’.
However, the
decision on an alliance was made on the basis of three factors:
The impact of the Tehelka tapes on the BJP’s image
The traditional closeness between Vajpayee and Advani and AGP president
Prafulla Mahanta
The realisation that a triangular contest would split the vote in
the Congress’ favour.
The third factor
was crucial. Despite its 33 per cent vote share in the 1999 general
elections, against 37.9 per cent of Congress and 16.7 per cent of
AGP, BJP won only two of the state’s 14 Lok Sabha seats. Similarly,
even after polling 10.41 per cent votes against 32.5 of the AGP-led
alliance and 30.56 per cent of Congress, BJP could win only four
seats in the 1996 Assembly elections.
Statistics
apart, the AGP and BJP have been drawing increasingly close over
the past couple of years. The AGP fielded weak candidates in several
constituencies during the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, allowing the BJP
to win two vital seats, Guwahati and Nagaon. The two AGP members
in the Rajya Sabha (the party doesn’t have any member in Lok
Sabha) had voted for NDA when Vajpayee faced a confidence vote.
And when Guwahati
MP Bijoya Chakravarty was made a minister in the Vajpayee government,
Mahanta said he was glad the AGP had “our own minister”
at the Centre. He wasn’t far off the mark; she had, in fact
been a Rajya Sabha member from the AGP in 1986-92.
The BJP’s
central leadership has been careful to back Mahanta even when its
state leaders were criticising him. Advani last year complimented
Mahanta for his handling of the situation in the wake of the attacks
by ULFA on Hindi-speaking settlers.
All this, however,
cannot mask the ground realities. For these elections, the AGP has
retained 64 seats, including most of those it won in 1996, leaving
44 for the BJP. These consist mainly of traditionally pro-Congress
seats. The rest are being given to the Bodo and Karbitribal groups,
also new AGP allies.
This hasn’t,
obviously, gone down well with state BJP leadership. They cite the
fact that their party had led over all others in 35 Assembly segments
in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls. Similarly, it had led over Congress
in 42 segments, while its candidates had led over AGP candidates
in as many as 83 Assembly segments.
The task is
now left to party leaders to put on a public face and promote the
idea of unity. “Whatever be the case, we have struck an alliance.
It is now for both parties to ensure the Congress doesn’t capture
power,” said Bijoya Chakra-varty, dismissing reports the dissension
within party ranks would affect the prospects of the new alliance.
And Mahanta
is only too glad the alliance has been formed with the BJP. Not
only does he have one opponent less to tackle but with AGP becoming
an NDA partner, the state would gain from a friendly government
at the Centre. All’s well, it would appear, for the alliance.
Until those graffiti reappear.
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